Waaree Energies Share Price Target at Rs 3,850: Motilal Oswal Research
Motilal Oswal Financial Services has reiterated a BUY recommendation on Waaree Energies with a target price of Rs 3,850, implying an upside potential of nearly 19% from the current market price of Rs 3,227. The brokerage believes the company is entering a transformational phase as it aggressively expands beyond solar modules into a fully integrated clean-energy ecosystem. Management’s long-term roadmap, branded internally as “Waaree 2.0,” envisions scaling annual revenue to Rs 1 trillion by 2030, backed by large investments in solar manufacturing, battery energy storage systems (BESS), inverters, transformers, and polysilicon integration. The company is positioning itself at the center of India’s renewable energy transition while simultaneously expanding its footprint in the US solar market.
Waaree Energies Unveils Ambitious ‘Waaree 2.0’ Expansion Blueprint
Waaree’s management has laid out one of the most aggressive clean-energy expansion plans currently visible in India’s renewable sector. The company plans to invest nearly Rs 320 billion over the next two years to create a vertically integrated ecosystem spanning the entire solar and storage value chain.
The roadmap includes:
- 28GW solar module manufacturing capacity
- 15GW cell manufacturing capability
- 10GW ingot-wafer production
- 20GWh battery energy storage system capacity
- 4GW inverter manufacturing
- 20,000MVA transformer manufacturing
- 1GW electrolyser production
- 2,500TPD solar glass manufacturing
- Polysilicon manufacturing integration
Management believes the renewable industry is entering a phase where scale and backward integration will determine long-term winners. The company argued that commodity volatility and global oversupply pressures can only be managed through tighter control over the supply chain and migration toward premium technologies.
Revenue Target of Rs 1 Trillion Signals Multi-Year Growth Visibility
Waaree has outlined a medium-term aspiration of growing annual revenue to nearly Rs 1 trillion by 2030. That compares with FY26 revenue guidance of approximately Rs 265 billion, suggesting a nearly fourfold jump over the next five years.
The company currently commands around 15%–18% market share within India’s solar industry and expects strong momentum from multiple business verticals, including:
- Commercial & Industrial (C&I) solar
- KUSUM rural solarization projects
- Rooftop solar
- Utility-scale installations
- Battery energy storage systems
Management also guided for sustainable EBITDA margins of nearly 20%, despite acknowledging that newer verticals could initially operate at relatively lower profitability levels during the scaling phase.
India’s Solar Opportunity Remains Deeply Underpenetrated
The brokerage highlighted India’s enormous renewable energy runway as a major structural tailwind for Waaree Energies. India’s installed solar capacity currently stands near 150GW and is projected to expand to nearly 400GW over the next seven years, with long-term potential reaching 1,200GW over the next 25 years.
Management emphasized that India’s rooftop solar penetration remains significantly below developed markets:
| Country | Rooftop Solar Penetration |
|---|---|
| India | ~1% |
| Japan | ~21.5% |
| Germany | ~12% |
| Netherlands | ~24% |
The PM Surya Ghar scheme continues to accelerate rooftop installations, while government incentives, production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, and the 500GW non-fossil fuel target by 2030 are expected to further strengthen industry momentum.
C&I and KUSUM Segments Emerging as Critical Growth Engines
One of the most important takeaways from the investor interaction was the sharp acceleration visible across distributed solar segments.
Management indicated that annual installations across rooftop, C&I, and KUSUM categories increased from nearly 10GW in FY24 to around 24GW by FY26.
The C&I and KUSUM segments alone witnessed substantial growth:
- C&I installations rose from approximately 4.7GW in FY25 to 7.5GW in FY26
- KUSUM installations expanded from roughly 3GW to 7.7GW over the same period
Waaree also sees agri-solarization as a massive long-duration opportunity, estimating the potential addressable market at nearly 191GW if agricultural solarization is fully implemented nationwide.
Battery Energy Storage Systems Could Become the Next Profit Engine
Waaree’s entry into BESS manufacturing could eventually evolve into one of its most strategically valuable businesses.
The company is developing a 3.5GWh integrated battery energy storage manufacturing facility in Valsad and intends to scale total BESS capacity to 20GWh by FY28.
Management highlighted several structural drivers supporting this segment:
- Government viability gap funding (VGF)
- PLI incentives for ACC batteries
- Dedicated BESS support schemes
- India’s broader “Make in India” manufacturing push
The brokerage noted that India’s battery storage market could rise from roughly 1GWh currently to more than 200GWh over the next seven years.
US Solar Expansion Adds International Diversification
Waaree is also scaling aggressively in the United States solar market.
Management stated that US solar demand currently stands at nearly 50GW–60GW annually, while 80%–85% of that market remains import dependent.
Waaree’s US module manufacturing capacity is expected to rise from 1.6GW currently to 4.6GW within the next six months, with additional capacity expansion already under evaluation.
The brokerage believes this geographic diversification reduces dependence on domestic demand cycles while providing exposure to higher-margin overseas markets.
Financial Performance Continues to Strengthen Rapidly
The company’s financial trajectory reflects the scale-up already underway.
Revenue is projected to rise from Rs 144.4 billion in FY25 to Rs 265.4 billion in FY26 and further to Rs 431.8 billion by FY28. EBITDA is expected to climb from Rs 27.2 billion in FY25 to nearly Rs 88 billion by FY28.
| Metric | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rs 265.4 bn | Rs 359.6 bn | Rs 431.8 bn |
| EBITDA | Rs 59.1 bn | Rs 72.8 bn | Rs 88 bn |
| Adjusted PAT | Rs 39.4 bn | Rs 45.6 bn | Rs 54.4 bn |
| EPS | Rs 136.9 | Rs 158.6 | Rs 189 |
Return ratios also remain robust, with FY26 return on equity projected at approximately 33%.
Valuation Framework Suggests Further Upside Potential
Motilal Oswal has valued the stock using a sum-of-the-parts methodology.
The domestic modules business has been assigned a 13x FY28 EBITDA multiple, while the US modules business is valued at 12x FY28 EBITDA. New businesses, including BESS and other integrated verticals, are valued at 10x EBITDA.
| Business Segment | FY28 EBITDA (Rs bn) | Valuation Multiple | Enterprise Value (Rs bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Modules | 61 | 13x | 816 |
| USA Modules | 16 | 12x | 196 |
| New Businesses | 11 | 10x | 120 |
The aggregate valuation results in a target price of Rs 3,850 per share, representing nearly 19% upside from prevailing levels.
Investment Outlook Remains Constructive
Waaree Energies appears to be transitioning from a solar module manufacturer into a broader clean-energy infrastructure platform. The company’s emphasis on backward integration, technology migration, energy storage, and international expansion positions it favorably amid India’s accelerating renewable energy adoption cycle.
While risks linked to overcapacity, pricing pressure, and elevated capex intensity remain relevant, Motilal Oswal believes Waaree’s scale, execution capability, and integrated manufacturing strategy could allow it to emerge as one of India’s dominant renewable energy platforms over the next decade.
