JSW Infrastructure is entering a decisive growth phase as capacity expansion, logistics integration, and strategic international partnerships begin to reshape its long-term earnings trajectory. Analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services believe the company’s aggressive infrastructure build-out, combined with India’s expanding maritime trade ecosystem, will trigger a sharp earnings inflection by FY28. While short-term growth in cargo volumes has been modest due to temporary weakness at the Paradip iron ore terminal, operational momentum is returning. With major port expansions, logistics acquisitions, and international projects underway, the company is expected to deliver strong revenue and EBITDA growth over the next three years, supporting the brokerage’s bullish outlook.

Investment Thesis: Logistics Expansion and Port Capacity Growth Power Long-Term Upside

JSW Infrastructure stands at the center of India’s maritime logistics transformation. The company is rapidly expanding its footprint across ports, terminals, and inland logistics networks to capture rising cargo flows driven by industrial growth and trade expansion.

The company currently operates a diversified port network across India’s east and west coasts and continues to broaden its international exposure. Analysts expect this expansion strategy to translate into a meaningful earnings acceleration by FY28 as newly commissioned capacity begins contributing fully to revenues.

Motilal Oswal forecasts strong operational momentum, estimating a compounded annual growth rate of:

• 13% CAGR in cargo volumes
• 33% CAGR in revenue
• 28% CAGR in EBITDA
• 29% CAGR in adjusted profit

These growth projections reflect both organic expansion and acquisitions across logistics infrastructure.

Current Operational Performance: Temporary Volume Weakness but Recovery Visible

Cargo throughput growth remained moderate during FY26. JSW Infrastructure reported volume growth of roughly 5% during the first nine months of FY26, largely due to lower iron ore shipments at its Paradip terminal.

However, several operational strengths helped offset this temporary slowdown:

• Strong performance at the South West Port and Dharamtar Port
• Additional throughput from Tuticorin interim operations
• New volumes from the JNPA liquid terminal

Encouragingly, iron ore volumes at Paradip have rebounded sharply since December 2025. Industry data shows iron ore cargo rising nearly 40% year-on-year by February 2026, suggesting the earlier weakness may prove temporary.

Management now expects the company to close FY26 with cargo volumes of approximately 123 million tonnes.

Strategic Capacity Expansion: Doubling Port Infrastructure by 2030

JSW Infrastructure is executing one of the most ambitious port expansion strategies among Indian private operators.

The company plans to increase its cargo handling capacity dramatically from 177 million tonnes per annum to nearly 400 million tonnes by FY30.

This expansion includes several key projects:

• Keni Port in Karnataka
• Jatadhar Port in Odisha
• Major upgrades at Mangalore, Jaigarh, Dharamtar and Southwest Port
• Expansion of Paradip coal and iron ore terminals
• New container terminal at Kolkata

In total, projects under development account for more than 117 million tonnes of additional capacity, excluding new international initiatives.

The strategy aligns closely with India’s broader maritime infrastructure vision, which aims to expand national port capacity to nearly 10,000 million tonnes annually by 2047.

International Expansion: Oman Port Project Adds Strategic Depth

Global expansion is emerging as a new growth pillar for the company.

JSW Infrastructure has partnered with Minerals Development Oman to develop a 27 million tonne greenfield port project in Oman. This initiative marks the company’s first large-scale overseas port development and positions it strategically along key global trade routes.

In addition, the company operates a liquid storage terminal in Fujairah with a capacity of roughly 5 million tonnes per annum. Although one storage tank sustained damage during ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, management confirmed that adequate insurance coverage exists and the financial impact is expected to remain minimal.

Logistics Business Transformation: Building a Pan-India Multimodal Network

Beyond ports, JSW Infrastructure is aggressively expanding its logistics platform.

Through the acquisition of Navkar and other logistics assets, the company is building an integrated multimodal network spanning rail, road, and container freight infrastructure.

Recent strategic moves include the acquisition of:

• JSW Rail Infra Logistics
• JSW Minerals Rail Logistics
• JSW (South) Rail Logistics

The acquisition is valued at approximately Rs12.1 billion and is expected to generate EBITDA of around Rs1.5 billion by FY27.

Rail capacity is also expanding significantly:

• Current fleet: 25 rakes
• FY27 target: 45 rakes
• FY30 target: 110 rakes

These additions will enhance cargo connectivity between ports and inland industrial clusters.

Logistics Revenue Potential: Rs80 Billion Opportunity by 2030

The logistics division is expected to become a major earnings driver.

The company plans to invest approximately Rs90 billion into logistics infrastructure over the next five years.

At scale, management expects the logistics segment to deliver:

In FY26 alone, the segment is projected to generate roughly Rs7 billion in revenue and Rs1.2 billion in EBITDA.

Financial Outlook: Strong Earnings Acceleration Expected by FY28

Analysts expect a sharp improvement in profitability over the next three years.

Return ratios are also expected to improve steadily, with Return on Equity projected to reach over 22% by FY28.

Valuation and Investment Outlook

At the current market price of Rs259, JSW Infrastructure trades at about 30.7x FY27 earnings and 17.7x FY28 earnings.

The brokerage values the company using a multiple of 16x FY28 EV/EBITDA, resulting in a price target of Rs360 per share.

The bullish outlook is supported by:

• Large capacity expansion pipeline
• Rapid scaling of logistics operations
• Improving cargo diversification
• Strong balance sheet with declining leverage
• Strategic alignment with India’s port-led industrialization strategy

If the company successfully executes its port and logistics expansion roadmap, analysts believe it could emerge as one of the most powerful integrated maritime infrastructure platforms in India.