ICICI Securities, writing under its ICICI Direct Research banner, described the September quarter as a case of a steady core franchise with operating costs doing the heavy lifting for earnings. Analysts Vishal Narnolia and Nivedita Choudhary expect earnings to compound at 13% to 15% a year over FY26-28 and retained their target of Rs 3,000.

Why Profit Rose Only 4%

The headline net profit of Rs 749 crore was up just 4.2% from a year earlier and down 10.6% from the June quarter. Two forces explain the gap between the operating story and the bottom line. Other income fell 26% to Rs 71 crore as weaker markets produced mark-to-market losses, and the year-ago tax line had been flattered by a Rs 46.8 crore provision reversal. Adjusted for that reversal, ICICI Securities puts profit growth at about 12%.

A Franchise Measured Against the Industry

HDFC AMC's quarterly average assets rose 10% to Rs 9.69 lakh crore, a touch behind the industry's 13%, so overall share slipped about 20 basis points from the June quarter to 11.1%. Excluding exchange-traded funds, share stands at 12.3%. The more profitable actively managed equity book grew 14% to Rs 6.09 lakh crore, holding a 12.7% share.

Retail engine intact. Live individual accounts rose 24% to 3.22 crore, and SIP-only market share improved despite volatility. Systematic flows of about Rs 4,800 crore grew only 6%, which management pinned on lower transfer plans rather than weaker SIPs.

Soft spots. Debt assets shrank 13% to Rs 1.62 lakh crore, and share slipped in multi-asset, aggressive hybrid and equity savings funds, where the company has strengthened its fund management and sales effort.

The Yield Table

Despite regulatory changes effective April 2026, yields ticked up slightly on a better asset mix. Each tile below shows a yield in basis points of assets.

Management cautioned that three schemes now manage more than Rs 1 lakh crore each, and the slab-based expense structure lowers yields as a scheme grows. On costs, total expenses rose 6.9% to Rs 265 crore, staff costs climbed 14.5% to Rs 142 crore, and the stock-option charge fell to Rs 18.6 crore, with about Rs 79 crore to Rs 80 crore expected for FY27.

Beyond Mutual Funds: The Route Map

ICICI Securities sees newer lines widening the customer base and adding fresh avenues for asset growth. Read the line from top to bottom.

ICICI Securities' Estimates

How the Rs 3,000 Target Is Built

The target is a simple area: FY28 earnings per share as the base, the multiple as the height, and the price as the space between them.

Base: FY28E EPS Rs 88.7

At Rs 2,400, the stock trades at 31 times FY27 and 27.1 times FY28 estimates, so the target asks for a modest re-rating on top of earnings growth. The projected FY27 dividend of Rs 62.6 implies a yield of about 2.6%, a TopNews calculation. Promoters hold 52.3%, foreign investors 24.1% and domestic institutions 14.6%.