Forex Update

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.30.09

The Cable has been in a rapid decline since falling through our 2nd tier uptrend as investors rush towards the Dollar for safety. The GBP/USD is finding near-term stability on our medium-term downtrend line in an effort to avoid retesting the key 1.40 level.

Investors panicked on Friday after Britain's Current Account plummeted and Final GDP came in a basis point below analyst expectations. The Current Account numbers were the largest cause for concern.

Not only did the Current Account come in near 1.8 Billion Pounds below expectations, but the announcement was coupled with a downward revision in last quarter's release. Despite the negative reaction from investors, QI09's release shows encouraging improvement from QIII08.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.30.09

The EUR/USD has taken a turn for the worst in a hurry. The currency pair has returned almost all of its gains from the major rally in reaction to America's quantitative easing. Germany's Prelim CPI coming in lower than expected triggered Friday's selloff.

Furthermore, the ECB cautioned the economy may not be as stable as previously thought. Therefore, the use of quantitative easing and lower interest rates is back on the table. Hence, the EU could be wading in the same pool of massive liquidity as America, Britain and Japan.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.30.09

Gold is contracting sharply after Friday's consolidation. The precious metal is exhibiting a negative correlation with the Dollar. The positive correlation with U. S. equities is a bit odd and raises a red flag.

These types of correlations remind us of late 2008 when commodities and equities joined together in large declines across the board, signaling deflation.

Therefore, such movements show investor confidence is withering and bulls should be wary. Gold's fundamental defenses are wearing thin, and all the precious metal has left is our 1st tier uptrend line and the highly psychological $900/oz level.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.30.09

Crude futures are tanking, collapsing below our downtrend lines and our 2nd tier uptrend line. In fact, the futures are headed back towards the highly psychological $50/bbl level as the S&P futures plunge below 800.

The governmental rejection of GM and Chrysler is having a clear, profound effect on the price of Crude. The swift downward movement is understandable since the possible bankruptcy of America's major auto manufacturers attacks the demand side of the equation on several fronts.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.30.09

The upward momentum in the 30-Year is regaining traction as U. S. equities plummet in reaction to the bad news concerning the auto makers and banks. Investors are running to the Dollar and U. S. debt for safety as the outlooks for the EU and Britain darken.

Furthermore, China is losing a little bit of its swagger since a deteriorating global economy will undoubtedly have a negative impact on its economy.

Additionally, we can't forget the Federal Reserve is officially participating in quantitative easing, meaning the U. S. government will protect the interest payments of U. S. debt at all costs. Hence, the 30 Year futures are strengthening in the hope that the excess supply of U. S.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.30.09

The S&P futures have crashed below our 3rd tier downtrend line and are presently trading beneath the highly psychological 800 level. The S&P futures are flirting with dangerous territory in reaction to the government's rejection of the automakers' restricting proposals.

The viability of GM and Chrysler are thrown into doubt and the possibility of bankruptcy is all the more likely. Furthermore, if GM and Chrysler are allowed to fail, then the market may force Ford to follow suit in what could be an industrial collapse. The inevitable can't be delayed too much longer.

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