Forex Update

USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

A violent day was had by all today as the USD whipsawed in big ranges before ending the day mixed. Comments by Treasury Secretary Geithner combined with better-than-expected US data combined to confuse traders in both directions but USD bears appear to prevail into the end of the New York session. Speaking on the possibility raised by the Chinese of a one-world economic currency were deflected by Geithner into a possibility of increasing SDR money through the IMF were misinterpreted on face-value throwing the USD into a big slide against the majors extending lows back under important intraday S/R; the Greenback recovering against some pairs but not others as the day wore on.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

The USD/JPY is struggling with our 3rd tier downtrend line as it tries to ascend past key February highs. The next 24-48 hours are crucial for the USD/JPY.

For if the currency pair can climb past February highs then we will finally see a retest of 100 with the possibility of large near-term gains.

On the other hand, if the USD/JPY can't brave through February highs within this time frame, we could very well see the currency collapse back into its downtrend with a movement towards our near-term uptrend line.

With key economic data coming from both Japan and the U. S. in the next 48 hours, the USD/JPY will certainly have the fuel to ignite a fundamental movement in either direction.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

The Cable’s rally ran out of gas at our 1.4781 resistance after surging on better than expected CPI and mortgage approvals data.

It appears the GBP/USD may continue its near-term downward momentum towards our uptrend line and 1.4570 support with U.S. equities looking to open lower ahead of key economic data.  Today Britain will give us a better picture of its consumer sentiment with CBI Realized Sales.

Additionally, the U.S. will release a flood of data including Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and weekly Crude Inventories.  We knew reaching and surpassing February highs would be a challenge.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

The EUR/USD continued its downward momentum yesterday, dropping below our previous 1st tier uptrend line.

To assume the uptrend has been comprised would be an overreaction at this point. However, if the EUR/USD were to fall beneath 3/19 lows, we could see a large near-term drop before the currency pair finds new stability.

The EUR/USD is fighting to keep its head above our medium-term downtrend line and is failing thus far, supporting the belief that we could see more near-term losses.

Technicals aside, it's intriguing the Euro depreciated against the Dollar yesterday considering most EU data came in slightly ahead of analyst expectations.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

Gold got shot down yesterday, extending early losses despite a late selloff in U. S. equities. Gold managed to regain some of its losses, but the damage has been done. While the uptrend isn't busted, the precious metal is surely playing with fire.

If gold can't stay within a comfortable range of our new 1st tier uptrend line, the precious metal could collapse back into its downtrend and in effect negate its impressive gains from last week. That being said, last week's run was monumental and backed by high volume.

Therefore, one is led to believe gold can regain its composure and continue on its uptrend. We are looking towards equities for guidance assuming the negative correlation will come into play.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The Dollar is making headway against the Yen, pushing through our 2nd tier downtrend line while backing away from our 3rd tier.

The negative Business Survey Index number is really taking its toll on the Yen. With the Japanese economy slowing much faster than America's and both central banks participating in quantitative easing, investors are leaning towards the Dollar as a safe haven as compared to the Yen.

Perhaps investors are also betting that the BOJ will need to implement additional quantitative easing and economic stimulus measures to buoy the economy, further deflating the Yen.

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