Forex Update

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.1.09

Crude futures are sitting right on our 1st tier uptrend line as investors await key economic data from the U. S. including the weekly Crude Oil Inventory number. Inventories have risen beyond analyst expectations for the last four weeks.

Crude futures are already under pressure from what appears to be pending bankruptcies from both GM and Chrysler. Considering the impact the failure of two of America's major car manufacturers are having on the outlook for future consumption, higher than expected inventories could send crude futures spiraling lower.

Crude futures are already trading below the psychological $50/bbl. If our 1st tier uptrend line can't hold, we could see the futures drop suddenly towards the $45.50/bbl-$46/bbl area.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.1.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures have performed nicely over the last 24 hours and look to attack their 3/19 highs. The strength in the 30 Year futures contradicts those optimistic on U. S. equities.

However, we can't disregard the historical movements made on 3/18 and 3/19 after the Federal Reserve announced its plan to participate in quantitative easing. We expected reflections from such a large movement backed by high volume, and this prediction may be coming true.

The 30 Year futures are making a statement by distancing themselves from our near-term downtrend line. Therefore, we wouldn't be surprised to see a breakout to the upside approaching. However, such a movement would likely require an accompanying decline in the S&P futures.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.1.09

The rally in the S&P futures fizzled yesterday to end with modest gains. Uncertainty is returning to the market as the bankruptcy of both GM and Chrysler seem more likely by the day.

The failure of these two large auto manufacturers could have a systemic impact on unemployment and consumption, further weakening a sagging U. S. economy.

Though financials finished with large gains on Tuesday, they still sit at questionable levels. The S&P futures were fighting to close back above the highly-psychological
800 level earlier today, but the futures are faltering after the ADP Non-Farm Employment change came in much lower than analyst expectations.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.31.09

The USD/JPY continues its sideways battle as investors await the incoming Tankan Manufacturing Index. Japan released some mixed data earlier today, including worse than expected Unemployment and Average Cash Earnings numbers.

On the flipside, Household Spending declined less than expected. Despite the encouraging Household Spending number, the data coming from Japan reiterates the same negative theme. Though new economic stimulus seems imminent, Aso and the BOJ aren't budging as the G20 Summit approaches.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.31.09

The Pound appreciated against the Dollar after GfK Consumer Confidence came in above analyst expectations and British retailing giant Marks and Spencer reported an improvement in earnings.

The GBP/USD proceeded to experience considerable strength from our medium-term downtrend line, and is fighting towards our 2nd tier uptrend line as we type. The bounce in the Cable is encouraging considering it happened comfortably above our 1st tier uptrend line. However, the rally is fueled mostly by oversold conditions since we don't view the above-mentioned news as game-changing.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.31.09

The EUR/USD has recovered well from Monday's lows despite a lower than expected CPI Flash Estimate. The large movement upwards is a bit confusing considering declining prices imply the ECB may need to get more aggressive with its monetary policy at Thursday's meeting.

Analysts are expecting the ECB to lower its benchmark rate to 1% and the use of quantitative easing is on the table. Monetary easing is normally negative for a currency, hence why the surge taking place this morning is a bit out of place.

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