Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) Share Price Could Reach Rs 2,430: Anand Rathi Research
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers has maintained its BUY call on Tata Consultancy Services with a 12-month target of Rs 2,430, about 17% above the current price of Rs 2,076. The brokerage says TCS posted an encouraging second quarter of FY27, with constant-currency revenue up 0.5% sequentially and 2.8% year on year, as BFSI, manufacturing, technology and the UK carried growth while India fell 10.3% on project deferrals. AI revenue now runs at about Rs 29,700 crore a year. EBIT margin held at 24.0%, but the house expects recovery to slip further out as investment costs and the MHP acquisition weigh.
Anand Rathi Research · Oct. 9, 2026
TCS Finds Its Growth Footing, but the Margin Rebound Keeps Receding
Anand Rathi keeps faith with India's largest IT exporter as BFSI, manufacturing and AI pick up the slack, even as costs incurred ahead of demand push profitability repair into the future.
BUY
Maintained
TCS · NSE: TCS · Levels board
CMP
Rs 2,076
Target (12m)
Rs 2,430
Upside
+17%
52-wk range
1,977 – 3,350
P/E FY28e / 29e
12.7x / 11.9x
Market cap
~Rs 7.5 lakh cr
The stock sits barely 5% above its 52-week low, and the target was nudged up from Rs 2,407 set on Oct. 4.
A Quarter Carried by the Core
The headline growth was modest, but its composition is what persuaded the house. Rupee revenue rose 1.3% sequentially to Rs 73,188 crore, up 11.2% year on year, helped by a weaker rupee. International revenue accelerated to 1.2% q/q in constant currency, led by the UK at +3.5%, while North America managed only +0.4% and India slumped 10.3% as clients deferred projects.
Net profit climbed 4.0% q/q to Rs 13,884 crore, a 15.0% rise on a soft base a year earlier, and EPS reached Rs 38.4. The board declared an interim dividend of Rs 12 a share.
Where the growth came from
Bar width = share of revenue; bar height = q/q constant-currency growth
BFSI, the biggest vertical, was also the biggest contributor, with momentum across banking, capital markets and insurance. Manufacturing and technology and services each grew 3.1%. Consumer slipped 0.7% on selective discretionary spending, though management expects a seasonal lift in the third quarter.
Order flow stayed healthy. Total contract value came in at about Rs 92,000 crore, down 4.0% year on year, and that figure excludes the five-year Porsche deal worth roughly Rs 14,400 crore and the Best Buy captive-centre engagement. Improving win rates underpin medium-term visibility.
The Margin Ledger
The next entries look heavier. TCS is investing ahead of demand through specialised hiring, a larger bench, subcontractors and ecosystem partnerships, and those costs land before the revenue does. The MHP acquisition adds roughly 50 bps of dilution, depending on when it closes, and third-quarter furloughs are seasonal. The house now models EBIT margin at 24.0% for FY27 and 24.1% for the following two years.
From the Earnings Call
Q. How big is the AI business now?
Annualised AI revenue reached about Rs 29,700 crore, up 19.2% q/q and roughly 10% of revenue, with margins materially above the company average. BFSI is where AI's share is rising fastest.
Q. Has AI-driven price deflation run its course?
Not yet, management conceded. Productivity gains still compress legacy work, though modernisation and vendor consolidation are opening fresh opportunities, notably in BFSI, manufacturing and life sciences.
Q. Is India's decline structural?
Management sees no structural issue and expects deferred work to return over the medium term. The house adds that BSNL could cushion regional volatility.
Q. What about the workforce?
Headcount rose by 4,258 to about 5.98 lakh, attrition eased 30 bps to 13.3%, and 10,000 campus graduates joined in the quarter.
Estimates at a Glance
The house trimmed EBIT by 0.4-0.6% across FY27-29 but lifted adjusted profit by 0.3-0.6%, leaving an EPS CAGR of 6.0% over FY27-29.
| Consolidated (Rs crore) | FY25 | FY26 | FY27e | FY28e | FY29e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,55,324 | 2,67,021 | 2,94,943 | 3,13,311 | 3,29,225 |
| Dollar revenue growth (%) | 3.8 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA margin (%) | 26.4 | 27.1 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| Net profit | 48,553 | 49,210 | 56,046 | 59,201 | 62,971 |
| EPS (Rs) | 134.2 | 136.0 | 154.9 | 163.6 | 174.0 |
| P/E (x) | 15.5 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 11.9 |
| RoE (%) | 51.2 | 47.7 | 48.8 | 47.1 | 45.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 6.1 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 |
Valuation and Target for Investors
Where today's multiple sits against history
TCS trades at 12.7x FY28e and 11.9x FY29e earnings, far below its long-run one-year-forward mean of 24.3x and even below the 18.9x lower band. Anand Rathi maintains BUY with a 12-month target of Rs 2,430, about 17% above the Rs 2,076 price. The house does not print the multiple behind the target; by TopNews arithmetic, it equals about 14x FY29e EPS of Rs 174.0.
For investors, the target is Rs 2,430 over 12 months, with a projected dividend yield of about 6% as a cushion. In TopNews's reading, not the house's, the stock's proximity to its Rs 1,977 low argues for building positions gradually around Rs 2,000-2,100 while revenue conversion and margin recovery remain unproven.
Editor's note
The house's call summary puts quarterly dollar revenue at 7,652 in its dollar units, while its quarterly table shows 7,642, a gap of roughly Rs 96 crore at the quarter's exchange rate. TopNews uses the table's rupee revenue of Rs 73,188 crore. The summary's growth figures (+0.5% q/q, +2.8% y/y) are in constant currency and the table's (+0.2%, +2.4%) in reported dollars, so those differ by basis and are not in conflict.
Risks the House Flags
Printed key risks
1. Persistent weakness in North America and the Consumer vertical.
2. AI-led productivity deflation outpacing incremental revenue.
3. Sustained subcontracting and partnership costs.
4. MHP-related dilution delaying margin recovery.
Levels at a glance: TCS | BUY (maintained) | CMP Rs 2,076 | Target Rs 2,430 | Upside ~17% | 52-week range Rs 1,977-3,350 | 12.7x FY28e P/E
Sources: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, Tata Consultancy Services result update dated Oct. 9, 2026, by Sushovon Nayak (Research Analyst) and Apoorva Khandelwal (Research Associate); TCS Q2FY27 earnings call as summarised by the house. Dollar figures converted at Rs 95.8, the quarter's effective rate printed by the house. The growth chart and P/E band are drawn from the house's printed figures.
Investments in securities are subject to market risks. This TopNews report summarises third-party research for information only and is not investment advice. Read all related documents carefully and consult a registered adviser before investing.
