ICICI Securities has issued a BUY call on NTPC, setting a 12-month target of Rs 481 against a current market price of Rs 389, implying an upside of about 24%. The brokerage says the state-run power giant is entering a more compelling phase, backed by a large capacity pipeline, a sturdier renewable-energy push, and improving operating efficiency. In its latest result update, the house argues that NTPC’s balanced mix of thermal, hydro, renewable, storage, and emerging energy assets gives it unusual resilience in a power market that is being reshaped by electrification and the energy transition.

What the quarter showed

NTPC’s Q4FY26 numbers were broadly constructive, even though revenue softened slightly. Standalone revenue from operations fell 1.8% year on year to Rs 43,111 crore, but EBITDA rose 11.1% to Rs 12,504 crore, reflecting better operating leverage and lower fuel pressure. PAT climbed 51.4% to Rs 8,747 crore, while the EBITDA margin expanded to 29.0% from 25.6% in the prior-year quarter. For the full year, standalone revenue declined 2.7% to Rs 1,65,494 crore, but EBITDA held nearly steady at Rs 44,799 crore and PAT advanced 17.9% to Rs 23,162 crore.

Why the brokerage likes it

The core thesis is straightforward: India needs a lot more electricity, and NTPC sits at the center of that demand curve. The report notes that NTPC already has about 89,108 MW of installed capacity at the group level, accounts for 17% of India’s installed capacity, and commands about 24% of generation share. It also says the company is executing more than 34 GW of capacity under construction, split across thermal, renewable, and hydro assets, which gives earnings visibility for the medium term. That scale matters because the company is positioned to benefit from both conventional power demand and the country’s accelerating shift toward cleaner sources.

Capacity pipeline matters

The report emphasizes that NTPC’s growth engine is no longer just coal-based generation. It is targeting about 8 GW of annual renewable additions and wants to reach 60 GW of renewable capacity by 2032. On the thermal side, the company is still relevant because India is expected to need additional coal-based capacity over the coming decade, and NTPC is already executing 16.5 GW of thermal capacity with another 4.6 GW in planning. Management also guided for total capacity additions of roughly 9.6 GW in FY27 and 10.4 GW in FY28, with renewables contributing nearly 8 GW each year.

Energy transition optionality

NTPC is no longer being viewed only as a utility; it is becoming a broader energy platform. The brokerage points to investments in battery energy storage systems, pumped storage, nuclear power, green hydrogen, and coal gasification as long-term value creators. Planned renewable capex through NGEL stands at Rs 35,800 crore in FY27, Rs 56,000 crore in FY28, and Rs 48,000 crore in FY29. The company is also building 5 GWh of battery storage at thermal stations and is progressing on the 2.8 GW Mahi Banswara nuclear project, with first unit synchronization targeted for November 2032.

Operating strengths

The quarter also highlighted some less flashy but highly important improvements. Receivable days improved to 15 from 29 in FY25, which strengthens cash flow quality, while the weighted average borrowing cost dropped to 5.98% from 6.61%, helping finance costs. NTPC Group generated 432.2 billion units of electricity in FY26, and its coal stations posted an average plant load factor of 72.04%, above the national average of 63.2%, underlining operational discipline. The company also added a record 9,618 MW in FY26, including 4,738 MW of renewable capacity.

Valuation and levels

ICICI Securities values the stock using a sum-of-the-parts framework, assigning Rs 408.5 per share to the base business and Rs 72.5 per share to NTPC Green after a holdco discount, which together yield a fair value of Rs 481.1. On that basis, the brokerage maintains its BUY recommendation. For investors tracking levels, the immediate reference zone is the current market price of Rs 389, the first major upside marker is Rs 414, which also matches the 52-week high, and the brokerage target sits at Rs 481. A practical support band can be inferred around Rs 316, the 52-week low, with Rs 389 as the near-term pivot.

Financial trajectory

The brokerage expects revenue and profit to compound at a healthy pace over FY26-FY28E, driven by new capacity and better mix. Net sales are projected to rise from Rs 1,65,494 crore in FY26 to Rs 1,99,427 crore in FY28E, while EBITDA is seen improving from Rs 44,799 crore to Rs 59,040 crore. PAT is estimated to climb from Rs 23,162 crore to Rs 26,418 crore over the same period, with EPS moving from Rs 23.9 to Rs 27.2. The stock’s valuation also looks more measured than in prior years, with P/E estimated at 16.4x for FY26 and 14.4x for FY28E.

Risk factors to watch

The two main risks are clear: slower-than-expected power demand growth and delays in renewable execution. Those are not trivial issues, because NTPC’s investment case depends on both volume growth and timely commissioning of new assets. There is also near-term uncertainty around renewable curtailment and grid connectivity, which affected NGEL in FY26 and temporarily weighed on economics. Even so, the brokerage believes such constraints should normalize gradually as infrastructure improves.

Investor lens

For long-term investors, the appeal is not a quick trade but a steady compounder with policy tailwinds, scale, and transition upside. NTPC’s mix of regulated returns, expanding renewables, storage optionality, and nuclear ambitions creates a more layered earnings story than a traditional utility. The company is still carrying meaningful debt, but the improving cash collection cycle and lower borrowing cost give some breathing room. In plain terms, ICICI Securities sees NTPC as a relatively defensive power play with enough growth embedded to justify a higher multiple over time.