Greenply Industries Share Price Target at Rs 355: Axis Securities

Neeta Aurora 28 July 2026

Axis Securities has reiterated a Buy rating on Greenply Industries Limited, raising its target price to Rs 355 from Rs 340, implying a 19% upside from the current market price of Rs 298. The brokerage's July 27 result update shows Greenply beat estimates on revenue and profit in the June quarter, with net sales up 21% year-on-year to Rs 725 crore and net profit rising 32% to Rs 38 crore. Growth was driven by a scaling MDF business, up nearly 25% in volume, alongside steady plywood demand. Management reiterated confidence in double-digit volume growth and margin expansion across both segments through FY27.

Greenply Rides MDF Boom as Axis Securities Lifts Target to Rs 355, Retains Buy

Building materials maker beats estimates on revenue and profit in the June quarter, with management pointing to a widening margin runway across plywood and MDF.

Rating

Buy

Target Price

Rs 355

CMP (24-Jul-26)

Rs 298

Implied Upside

19%

A Quarter That Beat the Brokerage's Own Numbers

Axis Securities' Q1FY27 result update on Greenply Industries records a revenue beat, an in-line adjusted EBITDA figure and a comfortable profit beat, underscoring what the brokerage calls "strong demand and capacity ramp-up" across the company's two core businesses.

Consolidated net sales rose 21% year-on-year to Rs 725 crore, a 5.4% beat against the brokerage's estimate.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at Rs 78 crore, up 27% year-on-year, broadly in line with forecasts, though the margin of 10.8% slipped 121 basis points quarter-on-quarter on softer plant utilization.
Net profit climbed 32% year-on-year to Rs 38 crore, nearly 12% ahead of estimates.
Earnings per share more than doubled sequentially to Rs 3.01.

MDF Is the Growth Engine, Plywood Holds Steady

The medium-density fibreboard business was the standout performer. MDF revenue jumped 32.8% year-on-year to Rs 196 crore, with volumes up nearly 25% to roughly 58,000 cubic meters and realizations improving 9.9% sequentially to Rs 35,325 per cubic meter. Plywood, the more mature segment, still delivered Rs 527 crore in revenue, up 16.1% year-on-year on 13.8% volume growth, with realizations edging up to Rs 265 per square meter.

Labor shortages and election-related disruptions weighed on plant utilization during the quarter, capping the EBITDA margin at 10.8% even as absolute profitability grew. Management attributed effective price hikes of 7-9% in MDF and 3-5% in plywood to offsetting elevated chemical costs tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions, while timber prices are expected to hold broadly stable.

Where the Margin Story Goes From Here

Management reiterated confidence in achieving 10%+ plywood EBITDA margins once plant utilization normalizes and quarterly plywood revenue crosses Rs 600 crore. MDF margins are expected to hold at 16-17%, with room to reach 17-18% as the company's second MDF line scales up.

Additional support is expected from Conti Roll technology, now being rolled out across plywood plants to improve product quality and cut material and labor costs, with benefits anticipated from the fourth quarter of FY27.

Capacity Additions on Track

The HDF flooring line commenced commercial production on July 20, 2026, adding a new value-added product line.
The Vadodara MDF expansion and the Odisha Greenfield plywood plant both remain on schedule.
Total FY27 capital expenditure is guided at approximately Rs 500 crore, directed chiefly at these two projects.

The company's furniture fittings joint venture remains a drag, posting revenue of just Rs 13.6 crore and continued losses tied to imported product costs and currency headwinds; management expects the unit to reach break-even by mid-FY28 as localization increases.

Balance Sheet Keeps Pace With Expansion

Consolidated net debt stood at Rs 533 crore at quarter-end, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57x. Management expects peak leverage to stay below 0.75x even as the company funds its Rs 500 crore capex plan, with stronger cash generation from ramping capacities expected to support deleveraging over time.

Estimates and Valuation

Metric (Rs Cr)	FY26	FY27E	FY28E
Net Sales	2,739	3,098	3,531
EBITDA	271	325	371
Net Profit	90	157	199
EPS (Rs)	7	13	16
P/E (x)	40.1	22.9	18.1
RoE (%)	10	15	16

Axis Securities values Greenply at 22x FY28E earnings per share — unchanged from its prior valuation multiple — to arrive at the revised target of Rs 355/share. Management has reiterated FY27 guidance of ~10% plywood volume growth and 25-30% MDF volume growth.

Levels for Investors

Level	Price (Rs)
52-Week High	349
52-Week Low	176
Current Market Price	298
Target Price (Buy)	355

Risks Worth Watching

Muted plywood demand remains a key risk to the company's growth trajectory.
Weak domestic MDF pricing and rising competition in that segment could erode Greenply's market share.
Elevated timber prices may compress margins if the company cannot pass on the higher costs.
Aggressive price cuts by unorganized players pose an ongoing threat to profitability.

Sources & Disclosures

This report draws on a Result Update on Greenply Industries Ltd. published by Axis Securities Research (Axis Direct), dated July 27, 2026, along with the company's Q1FY27 financial disclosures.

Market risk disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risk. Brokerage ratings, price targets and earnings estimates reflect the analysts' views at the time of publication and are not a guarantee of future performance. Readers should conduct independent due diligence or consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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