National Aluminium share price surged by 4 percent in today's trading session as metal counters were in high demand. National Aluminium has been showing strength over the last few sessions and stock has been on radar of many market analysts. National Aluminium opened today's session at Rs 215 and touched intraday high of Rs 223.89. The stock was currently trading at Rs 222.4 and could close more than four percent higher in today's trade.

National Aluminium Company Ltd. (NSE: NATIONALUM) has been a key player in India’s aluminium industry, with strong financial growth over the past year. With a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.42, it appears relatively affordable given its solid earnings trajectory. The stock has achieved a 52-week high of Rs 227.39 and a low of Rs 88.60, signaling its volatility yet potential for growth. A recent upgrade from Kotak Securities provides an even more optimistic outlook with a target price of Rs 235.

Key Stock Data

Yearly High and Low:
National Aluminium hit its 52-week high of Rs 227.39 on October 1, 2024, while the lowest point in the past year was Rs 88.60, recorded earlier in 2024. The stock has demonstrated strong recovery and growth from its yearly low, rising more than 130%.

Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio:
With a P/E ratio of 17.42, NALCO is trading at a moderate valuation compared to industry peers. This makes it an attractive buy for investors looking for exposure to India’s metal and mining sector.

Research House Recommendations

Kotak Securities Upgrade:
Kotak Securities recently upgraded National Aluminium from a ‘Sell’ to an ‘Add’ rating, citing favorable market conditions and the company’s strong fundamentals. The research report issued on October 1, 2024, has set a target price of Rs 235, indicating significant upside potential from the current price levels. This upgrade comes as NALCO is expected to benefit from supply tightness in the global aluminium market.

Fibonacci Levels and Technical Analysis

Fibonacci Levels:
Based on recent price history, key Fibonacci retracement levels for NALCO are as follows:

23.6% level: Rs 194.15
38.2% level: Rs 178.67
61.8% level: Rs 154.25
These levels can serve as potential support or resistance zones for traders. With the stock currently trading above Rs 220, it is closer to the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting a bullish trend.

Highest Volume Day:
The highest trading volume in the last year occurred on September 20, 2024, as the stock reacted to broader market movements. Over 9 million shares were traded that day, indicating strong investor interest and liquidity.

Stock Performance and Volatility

1-Year Performance:
NALCO has appreciated by 132% over the past year, driven by robust financial performance, improved market sentiment, and global demand for aluminium. The stock’s 1-year beta of 0.99 indicates it moves nearly in tandem with the market, yet it has shown resilience in volatile times.

Market Cap and Financial Overview:
With a market cap of approximately Rs 390.69 billion, National Aluminium is a significant player in India’s aluminium sector. For the last financial year, the company reported revenues of Rs 131.49 billion, alongside net earnings of Rs 19.88 billion, marking a 38.6% year-over-year growth in profitability.

Outlook and Conclusion

National Aluminium’s strong performance over the last year, coupled with favorable research recommendations and robust earnings, positions it as a promising stock for long-term investors. The recent upgrade from Kotak Securities and a target price of Rs 235 suggest there is further room for growth. However, investors should remain cautious of market volatility, particularly as the stock approaches its recent highs.

For traders, keeping an eye on the key Fibonacci levels and tracking volume spikes can offer insight into optimal entry or exit points. Given the stock’s resilience and potential for further appreciation, NALCO remains a noteworthy investment in India’s metals sector.