Manpreet Dhillon 15 October 2026

Jubilant FoodWorks Share Price Target at Rs 625: Motilal Oswal Stock Research

Motilal Oswal Financial Services has reiterated its BUY call on Jubilant FoodWorks with a target price of Rs 625, implying 47% upside from the current market price of Rs 425. The brokerage argues the Domino's operator is the best-placed listed quick-service restaurant company to ride a recovery in discretionary spending. Like-for-like growth at Domino's has climbed from 0.2% in the fourth quarter of FY26 to 4.1% in the second quarter of FY27, Popeyes revenue nearly doubled, and heavy supply-chain spending is largely complete. With the stock near its 52-week low, the house sees an attractive entry at 15 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA.

Company Update · Motilal Oswal · Oct. 13, 2026

BUY Reiterated

Jubilant FoodWorks: The Recovery Order Is Out for Delivery

Domino's is regaining momentum, Popeyes is becoming a second engine and the capex burden is easing. Motilal Oswal sees Rs 625 as the destination.

Thesis tracker

✓ Rating upgraded

Lifted to BUY in the August 2026 QSR thematic

✓ Growth turning

Domino's LFL 0.2% → 2.5% → 4.1%

● In transit

Softer base in 2HFY27; margin lift in FY28

Destination: Rs 625

47% above the Rs 425 CMP

The Levels

Rating	CMP	Target	Upside	52-week range	Market cap
BUY	Rs 425	Rs 625	47%	Rs 409 to Rs 623	About Rs 28,040 crore

Valuation basis: 27 times EV/EBITDA for the India business and 15 times for international operations, both pre-Ind AS, on September 2028 estimates. The stock trades at 15.6 times FY28E pre-Ind AS EV/EBITDA today, roughly 4% above its 52-week low.

Domino's Finds Its Footing Again

Like-for-like growth bottomed at 0.2% in 4QFY26 and has since recovered to 2.5% and 4.1%. A steady two-year LFL CAGR of 6% to 7% suggests underlying demand was healthier than headlines implied. Management guides for 5% to 7% LFL in FY27, implying high single digits in the second half as the base softens.

Same-store growth, % (Domino's vs Pizza Hut franchisees)

▬ Domino's LFL ▬ Devyani PH ▬ Sapphire PH Dashed peer segments: 2QFY27 marked as estimates in the house's exhibit.

Delivery is the backbone. It now makes up about 76% of sales, up from 64% in 1QFY24, and grew 12% in 1QFY27 as Domino's gained roughly 80 basis points of share among the top 25 QSR brands.

Dine-in and takeaway is the drag. Smaller orders have drifted to aggregators that cut free-delivery thresholds. Jubilant is responding with dedicated teams, upgrades at about 400 stores and in-store value offers.

Every Store Counts: The Daily-Sales Pecking Order

Domino's stores ring up roughly Rs 80,000 a day, about double Pizza Hut's. Popeyes has already reached Rs 96,000, between the two KFC franchisees.

ADS per store, Rs thousand (1QFY27)

Popeyes: The Second Engine Warms Up

Popeyes revenue jumped 97% year over year to Rs 70 crore in 1QFY27, with LFL growth above 40% for a third straight quarter. Management targets 250 stores and Rs 1,000 crore of revenue within three to four years. Many outlets are profitable at restaurant level, but the brand is not yet EBITDA break-even.

Popeyes stores, 1QFY24 to 1QFY27

Road to target

Stores: 88 of 250

Quarterly run-rate: Rs 70 crore

About 28% of the Rs 1,000 crore goal, annualised.

What's on the Menu: Innovation Over Price Hikes

Instead of price hikes, Jubilant is stretching its menu: value items pull traffic, premium pizzas lift the ticket and chicken, beverages and desserts drive add-ons.

Domino's · Launch Menu 2024–2026

Traffic builders

Rs 77 menu (Aug. 2024)Rs 77

Lunch Feast, dine-in (Apr. 2024)Rs 99

My Meal, in-store (1QFY27)Rs 119

Add-ons

Chicken Feast range (Feb. 2025)from Rs 99

Cold coffee / mousse (1QFY27)Rs 99 / Rs 49

Ticket lifters

Cheese Volcano (Aug. 2024)from Rs 289

Four Cheese Sourdough (Sept. 2025)from Rs 349

Cheese Lava Pull Apart (Dec. 2025)from Rs 399

Big Big Cheese Burst (Apr. 2026)Rs 999

The app is the moat. Monthly active users on Domino's apps rose from 1.15 crore in 1QFY25 to 1.95 crore in 1QFY27, and about 70% of online orders come through its own platform, reducing reliance on aggregators.

The Kitchens Are Built; Now Fill Them

With the Bengaluru food park (November 2023) and the Mumbai food factory (March 2026) running, Jubilant's eight commissaries can serve about 5,000 stores. FY27 capex of Rs 750 crore to Rs 900 crore goes mainly to new stores, upgrades and technology, while Hong's Kitchen is curbed and Dunkin' exited. Lease-adjusted free cash flow has stayed near Rs 250 crore since FY25.

India store network vs commissary capacity (each block = 250 stores)

■ FY26: 2,562 stores ■ Added by FY28E: 712 (to 3,274) □ Headroom to ~5,000. Blocks rounded to the nearest 250.

Margins: The House Is Deliberately Cautious

Management wants about 200 basis points of standalone pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin gain over FY24 to FY28, yet margins have hovered near 12.5%. Motilal Oswal treats FY27 as a transition year and pencils in only a 40-basis-point lift to 13% in FY28.

FY24 actual

12.6%

House FY28E

13.0%

Management aim

~14.6%

The gap: about 160 basis points of upside if efficiencies come faster.

DP Eurasia: Sunshine in the Cash, Clouds Over Demand

☀

The bright side

About 26% of revenue, it grew 28% to Rs 670 crore in 1QFY27 and now pays dividends to Jubilant.

☁

The overcast

Real LFL at Domino's Turkey is negative, COFFY is under pressure and hyperinflation accounting distorts reported numbers.

The Numbers Behind the Call

Motilal Oswal expects standalone revenue, EBITDA and PAT to compound at 13%, 15% and 21% respectively over FY26 to FY28E. Consolidated figures:

Rs crore (consolidated)	FY26	FY27E	FY28E
Revenue	9,513	10,644	12,067
EBITDA (Ind AS)	1,888	2,143	2,472
EBITDA margin	19.8%	20.1%	20.5%
Adjusted PAT	410	494	619
EPS (Rs)	6.2	7.5	9.4
RoE / RoCE	17.9% / 10.1%	22.8% / 11.4%	27.5% / 13.1%
P/E at CMP	68.4x	56.8x	45.3x
EV/EBITDA, pre-Ind AS	21.2x	18.4x	15.6x

Target for Investors

Motilal Oswal's 12-month target of Rs 625 offers 47% upside, roughly a return to the 52-week high. With the shares about 4% above their low, risk-reward favours patient investors, though a still-rich P/E argues for buying in tranches.

Editor's Note

1. FY25 PBT is Rs 333.5 crore in Exhibit 1 but Rs 342.5 crore in the income statement.

2. FY25 Domino's India ADS is printed as Rs 99,043, but FY25 quarters range from Rs 77,600 to Rs 83,900; FY27E's Rs 1,00,947 also far exceeds the recent ~Rs 80,000.

3. The text calls 2QFY27's 4.1% LFL delivered; the peer table labels it an estimate.

4. Pizza Hut ADS is given as Rs 32,000 to Rs 42,000, but Sapphire shows Rs 44,000; Popeyes is called "equal to KFC," whose franchisees print Rs 90,000 and Rs 110,000.

5. Exhibit 6, a menu-launch timeline, repeats Exhibit 5's Popeyes store title. No risk list is printed; the risks below come from the report's content.

Risks to Watch

Recovery stalls: Weak 2HFY27 LFL would put FY27 guidance at risk.

Input-cost inflation: A sharper cost spike could delay margin gains.

Aggregator competition: Small orders keep leaking from dine-in and takeaway.

Turkey volatility: Hyperinflation can swing reported earnings.

Popeyes losses and valuation: Popeyes is pre-break-even; the stock trades at 56.8 times FY27E earnings.

Sources

Motilal Oswal Financial Services, "Jubilant Foodworks: Steady performer; attractive valuation," Company Update dated Oct. 13, 2026. Analysts: Naveen Trivedi, Amey Tiwari, Tanu Jindal. Figures converted to Rs crore; charts redrawn by TopNews from the report's tables. The Popeyes run-rate and margin aim are TopNews arithmetic.

Disclaimer: Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. This TopNews Story is based on third-party research and is for information only; it is not investment advice.

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