Keshav Seth 11 October 2026

HDFC Bank Share Price Target at Rs 925: Motilal Oswal Stock Research

Motilal Oswal has reiterated its BUY call on HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 925, implying 28% upside from the current market price of Rs 721. The trigger is the Reserve Bank of India's approval of Anup Bagchi, a 34-year ICICI Group veteran, as managing director and chief executive for three years from Oct. 27, 2026, succeeding Sashidhar Jagdishan. The brokerage says the appointment removes a key succession overhang after a bruising post-merger stretch in which the stock fell 25% in a year. It expects loans to grow 14% annually through FY28, margins to recover and profit growth to climb back to 13% in FY28.

BUY · REITERATEDLEADERSHIP CHANGEMOTILAL OSWAL · BANKS

HDFC Bank Gets Its New Captain, and Motilal Oswal Sees 28% Upside

Anup Bagchi takes the helm on Oct. 27. The brokerage argues that leadership certainty, a healthier balance sheet and a FY28 earnings rebound can finally lift a stock that has lagged its peers since the HDFC merger.

Where the Stock Sits on Its Ladder

Price ladder, 52-week range (Rs)

Rs 1,021 52-week high

Rs 925 Motilal Oswal target

Rs 721 current price

Rs 682 52-week low

Level	Value
Rating	BUY (reiterated)
Current market price	Rs 721
Target price	Rs 925
Upside	28%
52-week range	Rs 682 – Rs 1,021
Valuation basis	1.8x FY28E adjusted book + Rs 128 for subsidiaries
Market cap	Rs 11.12 lakh crore

The stock trades only 6% above its 52-week low and 29% below its high. Investors with a 12-month horizon have a stated target of Rs 925; the Rs 682 low is the obvious floor to watch if sentiment sours again.

The Handover

Outgoing

Sashidhar Jagdishan

Term ends Oct. 26, 2026

→

Incoming, RBI-approved

Anup Bagchi

Three-year term from Oct. 27, 2026

Motilal Oswal calls the approval the removal of a key overhang. HDFC Bank has endured a difficult adjustment after absorbing HDFC Ltd, followed by governance questions after the sudden resignation of its chairman. The stock has fallen 25% in a year and 8% over five years. An external appointee, the brokerage argues, brings a fresh perspective just as the bank tries to rebuild investor confidence.

Thirty-Four Years at ICICI, in One Bar

1992–2011

2011–16

2017–23

2023–26

Group businesses: retail, corporate and investment banking, treasury; helped build ICICI Bank's internet banking platform.

ICICI Securities, MD & CEO: broking, wealth and distribution; spearheaded the ICICI Direct online platform.

ICICI Bank, executive director: retail, rural and digital, later wholesale, transaction banking and markets.

ICICI Prudential Life, MD & CEO: a period of steady growth in profitability and value creation.

The brokerage sees an all-round banker who has run both sides of a balance sheet, built retail franchises without loosening credit or cost discipline, and managed distribution-led businesses in fiercely competitive markets. His digital and data-analytics record, it says, should sharpen product propositions and productivity.

Four Repairs on the New CEO's Desk

Pre-merger vs merger stress vs Motilal Oswal FY28E

FY23 stress point FY28E

CASA ratio: 44.4% → 32.3% (June 2026) → 33.4%

Net interest margin: 4.06% → 3.19% (FY27E) → 3.26%

Loan-to-deposit ratio: 85.0% → 104.4% (FY24) → 92.6%

Borrowings as share of balance sheet: 8% → 18% (FY24) → 9%

1. Deposits. The CASA ratio slid to 32.3% after the merger. Bagchi's background in retail liabilities, digital channels and third-party distribution should help acquisition and deepen relationships.

2. Margins. Expensive HDFC Ltd liabilities and an unfavourable rate cycle diluted margins. With borrowings down to 11% of the balance sheet and a possible near-term rate-hike cycle, the house expects margins to expand from FY28.

3. Growth. Loan growth was throttled to a 9% annual pace over FY24-26 as the credit-deposit ratio touched about 110% at its peak. At roughly 95% now, the bank can accelerate; Motilal Oswal models 14% annual loan growth to Rs 38.17 lakh crore by FY28.

4. Merger dividends. The promised operating leverage and cross-selling have not fully arrived. Bagchi's span across banking, mortgages, insurance, wealth and markets could unlock them.

A Soft FY27, Then the Rebound

Rs crore	FY26	FY27E	FY28E
Net interest income	1,28,690	1,40,040	1,63,210
Operating profit	1,18,560	1,17,910	1,37,210
Net profit	74,670	79,390	89,820
Profit growth (%)	10.9	6.3	13.1
EPS (Rs)	48.5	51.6	58.3
Adjusted book per share (Rs)	352	386	431
RoA / RoE (%)	1.8 / 14.2	1.7 / 13.4	1.7 / 13.7
P/ABV, adj. for subsidiaries (x)	1.7	1.5	1.4

FY28E RoA

1.69%

Leverage

8.12x

FY28E RoE

13.7%

The DuPont math explains the dip. Motilal Oswal factors in a potential cut in insurance commissions, so core fee income falls from 1.02% of assets in FY26 to 0.54% by FY28E. Lower costs, at 1.54% of assets against 1.76%, and lighter provisions cushion the blow, holding RoA near 1.7%.

How the Rs 925 Target Adds Up

Core bank Rs 796
+
HDFC Life Rs 49
+
HDFC AMC Rs 49
+
HDB Financial Rs 33
+
HDFC Securities Rs 20
+
HDFC Ergo Rs 10
−
20% holding discount Rs 32
=
Target Rs 925

The bank is valued at 1.8x FY28E adjusted book. Listed and unlisted subsidiaries are worth Rs 2,43,820 crore before the holding discount and Rs 1,95,050 crore after it, or Rs 128 a share. Stripping that out, the stock trades at just 1.4x FY28E adjusted book and 10.1x earnings.

What Could Go Wrong

Fee squeeze: A cut in insurance commissions would weigh on fee income, which the house sees dropping to 13% of total income by FY28E from 22%.

Margin timing: The recovery leans on borrowings running off and a possible rate-hike cycle; a delay would push the FY28 rebound out.

Deposit race: Funding 14% loan growth requires deposits to compound about 15% a year in a competitive market.

Transition: A new chief executive and a governance overhang mean sentiment may take time to turn.

Editor’s note

The report says it expects FY28E earnings to grow “in mid-teens,” but its own estimates show 13.1%, and elsewhere it says 13%. We have used 13%.

It compares that with “avg. 9% over FY24-27E.” Its tables show 9% only for FY25-27E; including FY24's 37.9% growth lifts the average to about 16%.

The core bank is described as valued at 1.8x FY28E adjusted book, yet Rs 796 against Rs 431 a share implies about 1.85x. We report the house's stated figures.

This company update prints no risk list; the risks above are drawn by TopNews from the report’s content.

Sources: Motilal Oswal Financial Services, HDFC Bank company update dated Oct. 4, 2026 (analysts Nitin Aggarwal, Akshay Badlani and Devansh Jani); Reserve Bank of India approval as cited in the report. The price ladder, tenure bar, dumbbell chart and target build use the house’s printed figures, converted to crore.

Disclaimer: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. This report is based on a brokerage research report and is for information only; it is not investment advice. Read all related documents carefully and consult a registered financial adviser before investing.

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