Arvind SmartSpaces Share Price Target at Rs 750: Axis Securities
Axis Securities has maintained its BUY rating on Arvind SmartSpaces with an unchanged target price of Rs 750, implying 23% upside from the Nov. 8 close of Rs 609. The real estate developer logged its highest-ever quarterly pre-sales of Rs 906 crore in Q2FY27, more than double a year earlier, and took first-half bookings to Rs 1,338 crore, up 120%. The Bengaluru launch of Arvind Sylva drew over Rs 500 crore in 30 days. Management lifted FY27 booking guidance to Rs 2,600-2,700 crore, while net debt eased to Rs 200 crore. The brokerage values the stock at 5.5 times FY28E EBITDA on a pre-sales basis.
BUY MAINTAINEDAxis SecuritiesQ2FY27 Result Update
Arvind SmartSpaces Posts Record Rs 906 Crore Pre-Sales; Axis Holds Rs 750 Target
A Bengaluru blockbuster, a raised booking guide and steadier cash flows give the Ahmedabad developer a broader map. The brokerage sees 23% upside.
SURVEY PLOT / TARGET PARCEL
Rs 750
12-month target price
| CMP (Nov. 8) | Rs 609 |
| Upside | 23% |
| 52-wk high/low | Rs 609/582 |
| Market cap | Rs 2,800 cr |
Axis Securities reaffirmed its long-term BUY call on Arvind SmartSpaces Ltd. in a Nov. 9 result update, keeping its target at Rs 750 for a fifth consecutive report. The brokerage's case rests on three pillars: pre-sales that are accelerating faster than guidance, a geographic footprint that no longer leans on Gujarat alone, and a balance sheet disciplined enough to fund roughly Rs 1,000 crore of land purchases a year.
The quarter in the record of rights
| Entry | Q2FY27 | H1FY27 | Change (YoY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bookings (pre-sales) | 906 | 1,338 | Q2 more than doubled from 432; H1 +120% |
| Collections | 418 | 754 | H1 +77% |
| Revenue | 157 | 475 | H1 +96% from 242 |
| EBITDA | 45 | 197 | Q2 +46% (as printed); H1 3.5 times |
| Profit after tax | 23 | 120 | Q2 +25% (as printed); H1 fourfold |
| Net operating cash flow | 152 | 233 | Net debt down to 200 from 215 in June |
Figures from the report's narrative. The printed quarterly tables label different numbers as Q2FY27; see the Editor's Note.
Record bookings, steadier profits. Q2 pre-sales of Rs 906 crore were the company's best ever, and the first half already covers nearly 90% of FY26's full-year bookings of Rs 1,550 crore. Reported profit was lumpier. Management said Q1 was unusually strong because one project crossed its revenue-recognition threshold, and it called Q2's roughly 14% PAT margin the more representative run-rate. EBITDA margin guidance stays at 22-25%.
Benchmark readings: five quarters of pre-sales
Rs 432 cr
Q2FY26
Rs 331 cr
Q3FY26
Rs 612 cr
Q4FY26
Rs 432 cr
Q1FY27
Rs 906 cr
Q2FY27 RECORD
Disc area is proportional to quarterly bookings, from the report's operational table.
Arvind Sylva set the pace. The Bengaluru project booked more than Rs 500 crore within 30 days, roughly 60% of its inventory by value. Two projects launched in Q2, one each in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad, taking first-half launched inventory to about Rs 1,250 crore. New launches supplied roughly 65% of Q2 bookings. Sustenance sales from older projects supplied the remaining 35%, and first-half sustenance bookings have already passed Rs 600 crore, the previous full-year record.
The zoning map is being redrawn
ZONING SHEET Z-1 / PORTFOLIO MIX
Bengaluru share of bookings
Horizontal (plotted) vs vertical (high-rise) development
Project sourcing, medium-term target
Less Gujarat, more metro. Bengaluru contributed about half of first-half bookings, up from about 30% in FY26, and crossed Rs 600 crore of bookings in a half for the first time. Mumbai is next. Management also wants vertical projects to make up 65% of the portfolio within four years, and it intends to source 70% of new projects through joint development, which needs less upfront capital than buying land outright.
Pegs in the ground: the H2 pipeline
The launches await final-stage approvals and are pencilled in for late Q3 or Q4FY27. On that pipeline, management raised FY27 booking guidance from Rs 2,100-2,200 crore to Rs 2,600-2,700 crore, implying 70-75% growth, and it targets about 30% annual booking growth over the medium term.
Cash position, drawn to scale
SHEET 01 / UNREALISED OPERATING CASH FLOW
Rs 5,197 cr
SHEET 02 / H1 NET OPERATING CASH FLOW
Rs 233 cr
SHEET 03 / NET DEBT, SEPT. 30
Rs 200 cr
SHEET 04 / ANNUAL LAND BUDGET CAPACITY
~Rs 1,000 cr
SHEET 05 / IRR HURDLE, NEW PROJECTS
25%
TITLE BLOCK
Arvind SmartSpaces / cash map / Axis Securities data
Funding the land bank without stretching. First-half collections rose 77% to Rs 754 crore, which Axis attributes to better construction execution and working-capital management. Net debt slipped to Rs 200 crore from Rs 215 crore in June, and the existing portfolio is estimated to hold Rs 5,197 crore of operating cash flow still to be realised.
Axis Securities' forecasts
| Rs crore, Y/E March | FY25 | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookings | n.a. | 1,550 | 2,480 | n.a. |
| Net sales | 713 | 564 | 705 | 881 |
| EBITDA | 168 | 152 | 176 | 220 |
| EBITDA margin (%) | 23.6 | 26.9 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Profit after tax | 119 | 103 | 101 | 129 |
| EPS (Rs) | 28.2 | 24.3 | 22.3 | 28.5 |
| P/E (x) | 21.6 | 25.0 | 27.3 | 21.3 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 16.2 | 19.4 | 16.3 | 13.0 |
| RoE (%) | 21.4 | 17.0 | 13.7 | 15.1 |
Source: Axis Securities consolidated profit and loss statement and ratio table. FY26 net profit is shown as Rs 110 crore in the report's summary box.
The levelling staff: where the target sits
Readings plotted to a linear scale between Rs 570 and Rs 750.
Target for investors. Axis values Arvind SmartSpaces at 5.5 times FY28E EBITDA on a pre-sales basis, down from the 6 times FY28E EBITDA it used previously, yet the target holds at Rs 750. That is 23% above the Rs 609 close, for a market value of about Rs 2,800 crore. On the brokerage's own forecasts, the stock trades at 21.3 times FY28E earnings and 13 times FY28E EV/EBITDA.
The record shows how the target has been reset. Axis started 2025 at Rs 1,005 and cut it in three steps to Rs 740 by November 2025. It has held at Rs 740-750 since, while the BUY rating stayed in place throughout.
LEVEL BOOK / TARGET READINGS (BUY THROUGHOUT)
30-Jan-25 ... Rs 1,005 | 22-May-25 ... Rs 970
30-Jul-25 ... Rs 840 | 06-Nov-25 ... Rs 740
11-Feb-26 to 09-Nov-26 ... Rs 750
Revision clouds: risks to the call
Rev. A / Axis
Approval and launch delays
Growth depends on a brisk launch cadence. Slow approvals would push launches, and bookings, into later quarters.
Rev. B / Axis
Unproven in new markets
The company has yet to establish sales strength in the Mumbai region, and its Surat project remains stalled by technical issues.
Rev. C / Axis
Transformation hiccups
An ongoing organisational overhaul aimed at scale and cash efficiency could slow sales if it stumbles.
Rev. D / TopNews
Lumpy profit recognition
Profit is booked as projects hit completion thresholds, so quarters can swing sharply, as the drop from Q1 to Q2 showed.
Editor's Note: inconsistencies in the source report
- Quarter labels. The narrative gives Q2FY27 revenue, EBITDA and PAT as Rs 157 crore, Rs 45 crore and Rs 23 crore. Both quarterly tables label Rs 317.6 crore, Rs 156.4 crore and Rs 97.4 crore as Q2FY27. Those figures match the first-half totals minus Q2, which suggests they are Q1 numbers. The two tables also disagree on Q1FY27 revenue (Rs 155.4 crore versus Rs 140.5 crore). This article follows the narrative.
- Q2 growth rates. Against the printed Q2FY26 base (EBITDA Rs 21.5 crore, PAT Rs 12.0 crore), Q2 EBITDA of Rs 45 crore and PAT of Rs 23 crore would imply growth of about 109% and 92%, not the printed 46% and 25%.
- Estimates trail actuals. First-half PAT (Rs 120 crore) and EBITDA (Rs 197 crore) already exceed the FY27E full-year figures (Rs 101 crore and Rs 176 crore). The FY27E bookings estimate of Rs 2,480 crore is below the raised Rs 2,600-2,700 crore guidance.
- Valuation basis. The multiple fell from 6 times to 5.5 times, and its label changed to "PreSales/EBITDA", but the target is unchanged at Rs 750. The report does not explain why.
- Other items. FY26 net profit is Rs 110 crore in the summary box but Rs 103 crore in the P&L. The printed 52-week range of Rs 582-609 puts the CMP at the 52-week high and looks unusually narrow. It is reproduced as printed.
Sources
Axis Securities, "Arvind SmartSpaces Ltd: Q2FY27: Record Pre-Sales; Strong Cash Generations," result update dated Nov. 9, 2026. Analysts: Eesha Shah (research analyst) and Vishal Jagwani (research associate). Company data and Ace Equity as cited in the report.
The benchmark-disc chart, zoning bars and levelling staff are re-plotted by TopNews from the report's printed figures. The fourth risk card is a TopNews editorial addition.
Disclaimer: This TopNews article is based on a brokerage research report and is for information only. It is not investment advice. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully and consult a registered adviser before investing.
