Analysts hopeful about signs of industrial revival in near future

IndiaDespite the global downturn having delivered harsh blows to the industrial output in India - with the figures dropping for the third time in five months during February to 1.2 percent, and a rather drab March quarter - analysts are hopeful that the industrial revival might just be round the corner!

Analysts opine that inflation is no longer a cause for concern in the near future since the 0.26 percent annual inflation figures for the week ending March 28 marked a 33-year low; and it is likely that the figures would turn negative soon and stay close to zero for months. As such, at its April 21 policy review meeting, the Reserve Bank might decide to cut rates in order to give supplement the signs of industrial revival.

The 'industrial recovery soon' assertion of the analysts is further substantiated by the February output report pointing to a robust performance of capital goods and consumer goods, and the noticeable resoluteness in manufacturing prices.

Voicing the opinion of most analysts, chief economist Atsi Seth, of Reliance Equities, said: "We expect the industrial output to turn positive some time in April. Industrial activity will start accelerating although not at a very fast pace. Data from auto, cement and also the fact that the government has been spending gives us the sense that there will be a recovery."

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