Mumbai-based brokerage Deven Choksey Research, in a note authored by analyst Neel Mehta, has reiterated a BUY rating on ICICI Bank Ltd, setting a target price of Rs 1,691 against a current market price of Rs 1,402 — implying an upside of roughly 21%. In a nutshell: the brokerage expects ICICI Bank to post a Q1FY27 profit after tax of Rs 1,30,931 million, down 4.4% sequentially but up 2.5% year-on-year, as provisions normalize from an unusually low base in the previous quarter. Net interest income is projected to rise 3.1% quarter-on-quarter and 9.5% year-on-year to Rs 2,36,821 million, while pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is seen climbing 2.1% sequentially to Rs 1,85,768 million. The overall picture: steady core operations, a temporary dip in bottom-line optics, and valuation headroom that keeps the stock firmly in "accumulate more" territory for long-term investors.

LOANS SET TO REV UP ON CORPORATE AND NBFC DEMAND

The report's centerpiece argument is a reacceleration in credit growth. Advances are projected at Rs 1,60,08,736 million, up 3.0% quarter-on-quarter and a robust 17.4% year-on-year — a marked jump from the tepid 1.3% sequential growth logged in Q4FY26. The swing factor, according to the brokerage, is corporate and NBFC lending, expected to turn a growth engine again after stumbling last quarter, mirroring an economy-wide credit upswing visible in industrial credit data, which surged to 17.5% year-on-year growth in the May-June window from just 6.2% a year earlier. Retail and business banking, meanwhile, remain the dependable workhorses, advancing 2.75% and 3.75% sequentially, respectively.

DEPOSIT GROWTH LAGS, PUSHING THE LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIO TOWARD ITS CEILING

Deposits are forecast at Rs 1,81,94,172 million, ticking up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter and 13.1% year-on-year. Term deposits are doing the heavy lifting, rising 2.5% sequentially to fund faster credit disbursal, even as current account balances retreat 5.0% in a seasonal post fiscal-year-end pullback. The CASA ratio consequently eases to 40.8% from 41.4% in the prior quarter. More notably, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is projected to climb to 88.0% from 86.6% — brushing up against the top end of management's own comfort band of 85-88%, a metric investors will want to watch closely in coming quarters.

MARGINS HOLD STEADY AS RATE TRANSMISSION COOLS

Net interest margin (NIM) is estimated at 4.16% on a calculated basis — a proxy the brokerage notes typically runs 9-10 basis points below ICICI's own reported figure, implying an effective reported NIM near 4.25%. Yield on advances is seen easing 7 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 8.52%, while the cost of funds drops 13 basis points to 4.10%, as the tailwind from repo rate cuts fades and term deposit pricing stays put.

OPERATING PROFIT GROWTH STAYS MODEST AMID SEASONAL HEADWINDS

Non-interest income is pegged at Rs 73,500 million, essentially flat sequentially — typical for the June quarter. Staff costs are expected to rise 4.0% quarter-on-quarter on annual increments, while other operating expenses grow a gentler 2.5%. Net-net, PPOP of Rs 1,85,768 million marks a 2.1% sequential gain but a 0.9% year-on-year decline, a dip attributed to a strong non-interest income base in the year-ago quarter.

PROVISIONS NORMALIZE FROM AN UNSUSTAINABLE LOW

Perhaps the most important line item: provisions are seen jumping to Rs 12,807 million (32 basis points of annualized credit cost) from a mere Rs 961 million in Q4FY26 (2 basis points) — a base the brokerage explicitly characterizes as reflecting buffer utilization rather than genuine credit improvement. The normalization is expected to be driven by seasonal slippages tied to Kisan Credit Card (KCC) and agriculture-linked loans across the sector. Even so, ICICI's contingency buffer of roughly 84 basis points of loans remains among the strongest in the industry, giving management flexibility to smooth future volatility.

ONE ITEM TO WATCH: THE AISF STAKE

The note flags that ICICI Bank holds up to ~5% in a TPG Rise Climate/GIC-led consortium acquiring Aseem Infrastructure Finance from NIIF, a deal valued at roughly Rs 5,000 crore. The brokerage does not view this stake as material to near-term earnings estimates.

THE NUMBERS THAT MATTER

<table border="1" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse:collapse;"> <tr style="background-color:#f2f2f2;"><th>Particulars (Rs Mn)</th><th>Q1FY27E</th><th>Q4FY26</th><th>Q1FY26</th><th>QoQ</th><th>YoY</th></tr> <tr><td>Advances</td><td>1,60,08,736</td><td>1,55,38,930</td><td>1,36,41,571</td><td>3.0%</td><td>17.4%</td></tr> <tr><td>Deposits</td><td>1,81,94,172</td><td>1,79,46,249</td><td>1,60,85,173</td><td>1.4%</td><td>13.1%</td></tr> <tr><td>NII</td><td>2,36,821</td><td>2,29,789</td><td>2,16,345</td><td>3.1%</td><td>9.5%</td></tr> <tr><td>PPOP</td><td>1,85,741</td><td>1,81,990</td><td>1,87,458</td><td>2.1%</td><td>-0.9%</td></tr> <tr><td>Provisions</td><td>12,807</td><td>961</td><td>18,146</td><td>nm</td><td>-29.4%</td></tr> <tr><td>PAT</td><td>1,30,931</td><td>1,37,017</td><td>1,27,682</td><td>-4.4%</td><td>2.5%</td></tr> </table>

LEVELS FOR INVESTORS

At Rs 1,402, ICICI Bank trades comfortably within its 52-week range of Rs 1,188-1,494. Deven Choksey Research's target of Rs 1,691 implies roughly 21% upside over a 12-month horizon — a call that has held consistent through 2026, with the brokerage maintaining a BUY tag since April at a similar target. For FY26E-FY28E, the house projects EPS progression from Rs 70.4 to Rs 91.0, alongside steady net profit growth from Rs 5,01,467 million to Rs 6,48,054 million. Investors tracking the stock may watch Rs 1,384-1,400 as a near-term support zone, with Rs 1,691 as the medium-term target and Rs 1,494 as the immediate resistance to clear.