USD Technical Forex Analysis for Daily Traders
The USD continued to advance against most majors but lost ground against Yen to end the day mixed and at new highs for the year. Stops were triggered in thin trade traders report suggesting that some bottom-picking has been done recently but the relentless one-way USD advance today made quick work of the USD bears today. Traders report that conditions were horrible and volumes almost non-existent suggesting that a potential bottom is once again forming.
With most traders focusing almost exclusively on liquidity, bank lending and the financial crisis, it appears evident that finding a USD bear will be hard work. In my view, the charge higher by the USD is suspect because it can't last due to the underlying fundamentals being what they are.
Lately traders have ignored US economic data preferring to trade on rumor and conjecture; tomorrow is regular unemployment and Friday is Existing home sales; both expected to be negative for the Greenback. On the day, Cable sank like a stone for a low print at 1.6138 after the London fix as more dovish rhetoric from the BOE filtered through the markets.
Traders note that order boards are blank after the 500 point move overnight and the 1200 point move the past 48 hours; most are looking for a bounce to at least hang a hat on. EURO likely fell in sympathy although some suggest the EURO led the decline; either way the EURO dropped through the 1.3000 handle for a low print at 1.2737 before a bounce was seen. Traders report model accounts selling the rate under the 1.2900 area.
USD/CHF rallied also for a high print at 1.1714 in NY before falling back on profit-taking; mist expect a test for stops again over the 1.1720 area near-term and that may finally be the sell for a potential top. USD/JPY fell in line with equities weakness; the DJIA losing 460 points on the day heading into the close.
Low prints in USD/JPY at 97.29; aggressive traders can sell more on the close at the 97.50 area. In my view, the USD rally has got to be nearing the end of this move; fundamentals don't support it and the financial crisis is showing signs of mitigating as some banks are returning to normal operations. Once USD bulls figure out they are holding expensive USD I think at least a small correction will force a top in the rate. Look for quiet overnight action as volumes are light and a steady open in NY tomorrow ahead of US data.
Today's US Dollar Trading
• Traders note volumes and conditions at almost zero
• Stops drive a lot of the majors lower
• USD/JPY into the 97.00 area
Overnight Preview
• Look for consolidation and a quiet night
• USD likely to be sideways ahead of data
Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-4 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 10:00am USD HPI m/m
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com