The French government has initiated consultations with gambling stakeholders to pave the way for potential online casino regulation in 2025. Key topics under scrutiny include market access, combating the illegal iCasino market, and defining the remit of regulations. Stakeholders, including land-based casinos, online operators, and government authorities, must reconcile diverging priorities through extensive negotiations. While public health, consumer protection, and economic impact remain central to discussions, the outcome will ultimately determine the trajectory of France’s gambling sector.

Core Issues Driving the Debate

Market Access Priorities:

Land-Based Casinos (CdF): The Casinos de France trade body seeks exclusivity for operating online casinos for three to five years, ensuring that digital offerings align with their interests.
Online Operators (AFJEL): Advocating for an open and competitive market, AFJEL seeks to ensure fair access for digital operators to capitalize on the new regulatory environment.
Government Goals: Authorities aim to raise €1bn in annual tax revenues, emphasizing regulation that balances economic benefits with consumer protection.
Illegal Market Concerns: An unregulated iCasino market, valued between €1.5bn and €2bn, has further heightened the urgency for effective legislation.

Scenarios for Regulation

Scenario 1: Exclusivity for Land-Based Casinos CdF proposes exclusive rights for land-based operators to extend their operations online. This scenario could also include restrictions preventing major French online platforms, such as Betclic, or international operators from acquiring physical casinos to gain licenses.

Scenario 2: Open Competition AFJEL champions a fully open and competitive market, allowing digital operators equal opportunities to establish their online presence without restrictions or exclusive clauses.

Scenario 3: Hybrid Model A middle-ground solution could involve online operators managing the digital platforms of land-based casinos. However, concerns about revenue-sharing agreements and operational dynamics make this model contentious.

Stakeholder Dynamics and Lobbying Influence

Political and Economic Leverage:

Casinos de France (CdF): Backed by numerous MPs and hundreds of mayors, CdF contributes €1.5bn annually in taxes, bolstering its bargaining position.
Française des Jeux (FDJ): The state lottery operator, which recently acquired Kindred Group, wields significant lobbying power, contributing €4.5bn of the €6bn gambling tax revenue in 2021. FDJ has expressed skepticism about regulating online casinos, further complicating the debate.
Shifting Government Stance: Unlike its predecessor, the current administration has adopted a more open and inclusive approach to stakeholder engagement. This marks a shift from 2023 when CdF’s lobbying efforts were largely ignored.

Economic and Public Health Considerations

Revenue Cannibalization: Concerns persist that online portals may divert revenues from physical casinos, undermining their profitability. This contentious issue is expected to dominate discussions.

Consumer Protection and Public Health: Stakeholders must address responsible gaming practices, focusing on gambling addiction prevention and safeguarding vulnerable populations as part of the regulatory framework.

The Path Forward: Opportunities and Challenges

Resolving the Impasse: Achieving consensus among CdF, AFJEL, and FDJ will require significant compromise. The preferred regulatory framework must balance economic interests, protect consumer welfare, and curtail illegal market activities.

Key Decision Points: The ultimate model will hinge on whether stakeholders feel their primary demands—such as exclusivity, open competition, or hybrid arrangements—are adequately addressed.

Conclusion

France’s journey toward online casino regulation in 2025 is poised to reshape its gambling landscape. With high stakes for all parties involved—ranging from €1bn in projected tax revenues to addressing a €2bn illegal market—the negotiations represent a critical juncture. Whether through exclusivity, competition, or hybrid models, the final outcome will determine the sector’s growth trajectory and its alignment with public health and economic goals.