Forex Update

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The Cable continues its impressive run and is charging ahead Tuesday in much better than expected Mortgage Approvals, CPI and Relative Price Index.

Mortgage Approvals have outperformed analyst expectations for the 3rd straight release. Britain's housing market seems to have found a bottom, reigniting hopes the worst of the economic crisis may be behind us.

Additionally, outperformance in the CPI and RPI indicate prices are stabilizing and rising. The GBP/USD is running with all of the positive FX news, popping past February
23rd highs with no foreseeable barriers left between present price and 2009 highs.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The EUR/USD is selling off slightly Tuesday as the consolidation continues. The currency pair is bouncing off our 1st tier uptrend line while sitting comfortably above our downtrend line, showing investors are holding onto the uptrend as U. S. equities make excellent strides fundamentally.

The EUR/USD is experiencing weakness after a much weaker than expected Current Account, confirming the trend in yesterday's Trade Balance.

The EU is importing far more than exporting, resulting in a larger supply of Euros. On a positive note, all of the manufacturing and services PMIs came in slightly better than expectations, giving investors hope the economic slowdown is leveling off.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

Crude futures continued their ascent as U. S. equities shot up nearly 7%. Crude has reacted as expected after closing above the psychological $50/bbl and our 2nd tier downtrend line earlier this week.

Despite the gains, the movement was calm considering the furious rally taking place on Wall Street. Perhaps crude futures are reaching overbought levels with 2009 highs approaching. With a lack of economic data from the U. S. today, crude investors are focusing on the incoming manufacturing PMI data from the EU.

Higher levels of manufacturing yield greater consumption of crude during the production process and imply improving consumer sentiment, and falling manufacturing levels imply the opposite.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

Gold has posted some heavy losses over the past 24 hours, exercising its positive correlation with U. S. equities as the S&P closed up over 7%.

The previous metal briefly sunk below our 1st tier uptrend line on Tuesday, but is currently fighting back above with the S&P futures trading lower pre-market.

The condition of Gold has deteriorated overnight considering last week's huge rally. However, the last movements in negative territory have been backed by relatively low volume compared to March 19th's up-bar.

Therefore, since the large action is to the upside, we remain positive trend-wise on the precious metal as long as it can hold up around present levels.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are dropping after our trend lines experienced an inflection point. The weakness in Treasury futures comes in reaction to soaring U. S. equity markets.

However, Treasuries aren't exercising their negative correlations with equities to the full extent, logging only marginal losses compared to the 7% gain in the S&P. Regardless, the 30 Year futures are heading back into the February trading zone with which competed with for quite some time.

Even though the 30 Year futures are clearly below our downtrend line, we must consider the fact that the most significant volume day we've seen in a while came last week on an up-bar after the U. S. initiated quantitative easing.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The S&P futures are getting hit by some profit taking pre-market after Monday's energetic rally. The S&P closed up over 7% while being led in large part by financials.

The toxic asset plan was clearly accepted by investors as analysts hope creating a market for Mortgage Back Securities will help price and remove some of the derivative debt from bank balance sheets.

The Treasury is hoping that removing toxic assets from the balance sheet banks will help ease credit requirements and get loans flowing again. On the dark side, the toxic asset plan is complex and requires a large amount of participation from private investors.

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