Jatin Malhotra 14 October 2026

Radico Khaitan Share Price Target at Rs 5,550: ICICI Direct

ICICI Direct has a BUY call on Radico Khaitan, the maker of Magic Moments vodka and Rampur single malt, with a 12-month target of Rs 5,550, about 22% above the market price of Rs 4,550. In an Oct. 12 Shubh Nivesh note, the brokerage argues that premiumisation is reshaping the company. Revenue from its prestige-and-above (P&A) brands grew 27% a year over FY23-26, EBITDA margin climbed to 17% from 11.4%, and debt is being repaid quickly. ICICI Direct expects revenue to compound at about 16% a year and profit at about 32% through FY29. It values the stock at 58 times average FY28-29 earnings.

ICICI Direct · Shubh Nivesh · Oct. 12, 2026

Radico Khaitan Pours Its Future Into the Premium Glass

A richer brand mix is lifting margins, the balance sheet is close to net debt-free, and ICICI Direct sees about 22% upside for patient investors.

BUY
12 MONTHS

Target

Rs 5,550

CMP Rs 4,550 · upside ~22%

Est. distiller · 32.3 crore litres a year · 8 “millionaire” brands

The Call, Served Neat

ICICI Direct's retail research desk recommends buying Radico Khaitan with a target of Rs 5,550 over 12 months. The brokerage describes the company as one of India's largest liquor makers, with annual capacity of 32.3 crore litres and eight “millionaire” brands, each selling more than 10 lakh cases a year. The thesis: Indian drinkers are trading up, and Radico has the brands to catch them.

Levels for investors

Rating	CMP	Target	Upside	52-week range	Market cap	Valuation basis
BUY	Rs 4,550	Rs 5,550	~22%	Rs 2,500 - Rs 4,747	Rs 60,924 crore	58x avg FY28-29E EPS of Rs 95.6

The note sets no stop-loss. The stock trades about 4% below its 52-week high.

Premiumisation Is the Main Pour

Value is outrunning volume. Radico's P&A portfolio grew revenue at a 27% compound annual rate to Rs 3,063 crore over FY23-26, while case volumes grew at 21% a year to 1.67 crore cases. Each bottle is selling for more, the essence of premiumisation.

The portfolio keeps widening. Brand building, innovation and new categories, including a recent tequila launch, keep Radico in step with a growing cocktail culture. Management has raised its FY27 P&A volume growth guidance to 25% from 20%.

Fill level: P&A share of the business

Each bottle is filled to the salience the house reports for P&A brands.

FY23

→

FY26

Fill drawn to scale. See the editor's note on the 45.6% figure.

Magic Moments Keeps the Volume Flowing

The flagship vodka is the clearest proof of the strategy. Magic Moments holds about 60% of its market and sold more than 80 lakh cases in FY26, up from 71 lakh in FY25. In the June quarter alone it shipped a record ~33 lakh cases, equal to roughly 41% of the whole of FY26. The tailwind is structural: vodka's share of the Indian spirits market rose to 6% from 4.6% over the past year, according to the report.

Luxury Heads for the Departure Gate

At the top of the shelf, Radico's luxury portfolio earned about Rs 475 crore in FY26, and the company has guided for about 25% growth in FY27. Rampur, Royal Ranthambore, Jaisalmer Gin and Sangam World Malt lead that push. The brands sit in more than 65 global duty-free locations, with a target of more than 100, and have recently entered four major UK airports.

Flight path: global duty-free locations

Mix Becomes Margin

Pricier brands earn fatter margins, so the mix shift shows up directly in profitability. EBITDA margin improved to 17% in FY26 from 11.4% in FY23. Management is targeting 20% in FY27. The India-UK free trade agreement adds another lever, because cheaper Scotch should lower input costs for Indian whisky blenders. ICICI Direct models roughly 500 basis points of further expansion, to about 22% by FY29E.

EBITDA margin, radial view (full ring = 25%)

FY23: 11.4% (outer ring)

FY26: 16.9% (middle ring)

FY29E: 21.9% (inner ring, ICICI Direct estimate)

The centre figure is the total FY23-FY29E change, by TopNews arithmetic.

A Balance Sheet Draining Its Debt

Radico repaid Rs 138 crore of debt in the June quarter and expects to be net debt-free by the end of Q2FY27. With no major capacity build planned, capital spending should stay at a maintenance Rs 150-170 crore a year. ICICI Direct expects lower capital employed and better profits to lift return on equity to about 23% and return on capital employed to about 29% by FY29E, with room for higher dividends.

Debt battery (gross debt, Rs crore)

FY26 year-end

Rs 799 (cash Rs 88)

After Q1FY27 repayment

~Rs 661*

Goal by Q2FY27

Net debt-free

*TopNews arithmetic: FY26 debt less the Rs 138 crore repaid. Bars are drawn to scale.

The Numbers ICICI Direct Is Drinking To

Rs crore	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27E	FY28E	FY29E	CAGR FY26-29E
Revenue	4,118.5	4,851.2	6,050.4	6,975.5	8,132.5	9,361.9	15.7%
EBITDA	506.1	673.6	1,021.5	1,365.6	1,710.4	2,053.6	26.2%
EBITDA margin (%)	12.3	13.9	16.9	19.6	21.0	21.9	-
Adjusted PAT	262.2	345.6	618.5	882.7	1,145.0	1,413.1	31.7%
EPS (Rs)	19.6	25.8	46.2	66.0	85.6	105.6	-
RoE / RoCE (%)	10.5 / 11.3	12.5 / 13.6	18.5 / 20.6	21.5 / 24.2	22.8 / 29.4	22.7 / 29.1	-

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research. FY27E-FY29E are brokerage estimates.

Paying a Premium for Premium

Radico is not cheap. At Rs 4,550, the stock trades at 98.4 times FY26 earnings and 69 times FY27 estimates. ICICI Direct's case rests on earnings growing fast enough to shrink that multiple. It averages FY28E and FY29E earnings per share to Rs 95.6 and applies 58 times, which works out to about Rs 5,545, rounded to the Rs 5,550 target.

P/E glide path at CMP Rs 4,550

Editor's note

What the 45.6% measures. The report puts P&A salience at 45.6% in FY26. Yet P&A revenue of Rs 3,063 crore against total revenue of Rs 6,050 crore gives about 51% by value. The 45.6% is probably a volume share; the note does not say.

The debt-free timeline. The report, dated Oct. 12, says Radico “expects” to be net debt-free by Q2FY27, a quarter that had already ended on Sept. 30. Its FY26 figures put net debt at about Rs 711 crore; after the Rs 138 crore repaid in Q1, roughly Rs 570 crore would have had to be cleared in a single quarter. September-quarter results will confirm it.

What Could Spill

Key risks

State liquor policy: a policy change in a large state can hit revenue directly. (ICICI Direct)

Input costs: volatile prices for grain, alcohol and packaging could squeeze margins. (ICICI Direct)

Valuation (TopNews flag): at about 69 times FY27 earnings, the stock leaves little room for a miss on the house's 32% profit-growth path. The note prints only the first two.

Sources

ICICI Direct Research (ICICI Securities Retail Equity Research), “Shubh Nivesh: Radico Khaitan Ltd. – Premiumisation to power the growth ahead,” Oct. 12, 2026. Research analysts: Kaustubh Pawaskar, Abhishek Shankar and Sonal Rajpal. Charts are drawn by TopNews from the house's figures; derived values are marked as TopNews arithmetic.

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing. This report is for information only and is not investment advice.

Business News:

General:

Companies:

Analyst Views:

Regions: