Keshav Seth 30 October 2026

JK Cement Share Price Target at Rs 6,078: Anand Rathi Stock Research

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers has reiterated its BUY call on JK Cement while lowering its 12-month price target to Rs 6,078 from Rs 6,818, which still points to roughly 24% upside from the Rs 4,896 share price. The September quarter showed two faces. Revenue climbed 23.7% to Rs 3,733 crore and volumes rose 19.4% to nearly 60 lakh tonnes as new plants in central India filled up. Yet fuel costs tied to the West Asia conflict pushed EBITDA per tonne down 4.8% to Rs 849. The brokerage trimmed FY28 earnings by 15.4% but argues capacity growth and price hikes justify patience.

BUY REITERATED
Explainer
Q2FY27 result update
Cement

JK Cement: Why Anand Rathi still says buy after cutting its target to Rs 6,078

Record capacity additions and market-share gains are colliding with a fuel-cost shock. Here is what the brokerage concluded, question by question.

The short answer

Volumes are the story: sales rose 19.4% to 59.8 lakh tonnes, far ahead of the industry, on central India share gains.
Fuel is the drag: power and fuel cost per tonne jumped 15.1%, cutting EBITDA per tonne to Rs 849.
Estimates come down: FY27 and FY28 profit forecasts are lower by 9.9% and 15.4%.
The call stays: at 17 times Sep-28E EV/EBITDA, the stock is worth Rs 6,078, about 24.1% above the market.

Quick facts
Share price	Rs 4,896
Target (12 months)	Rs 6,078
Previous target	Rs 6,818
Upside	~24.1%
52-week range	Rs 4,672 – 6,471
Market value	~Rs 38,100 crore

How strong was the September quarter?

Strong on the top line, softer underneath. Revenue rose 23.7% year on year to Rs 3,733 crore, helped by a 3.6% rise in realisation to Rs 6,243 a tonne. Grey cement volume grew about 22% while white cement was flat. EBITDA rose 13.6% to Rs 507 crore, but the margin narrowed 120 basis points to 13.6%. Adjusted profit increased 7.8% to Rs 173 crore.

The chart below shows why the quarter feels mixed: the bars for volume keep climbing on a year-on-year basis, while the line for profit per tonne has slipped for two straight quarters.

Volume (bars, lakh tonnes) and EBITDA per tonne (line, Rs)

Source: Anand Rathi Research, consolidated quarterly data. Chart drawn by TopNews.

Where did the extra cost come from?

Almost every per-tonne cost line rose faster than realisation. Fuel was the main culprit, though a low-cost inventory and a richer share of Indian coal blunted the blow.

Rs per tonne	Q2FY26	Q2FY27	Change
Power and fuel	1,212	1,395	+15.1%
Raw material	1,028	1,143	+11.2%
Freight	1,301	1,398	+7.4%
Other expenses	1,200	1,248	+4.0%
Staff	494	496	+0.3%
Realisation	6,026	6,243	+3.6%

Fuel cost averaged Rs 1.71 per kcal, below peers, with a mix of 55% Indian coal, 13% alternative fuels and the rest pet coke. With pet coke at $185-190 a tonne (about Rs 16,500-16,900) and domestic coal premiums nearly doubling, management expects fuel to approach Rs 2 per kcal.

What is management promising for the second half?

Lever	Guidance	Why it matters
Volume	Grey cement to outgrow industry demand of 7-8% in FY27	Cement utilisation was only 67%, so there is room
Pricing	Rs 20 a bag raised since mid-September; another Rs 10-15 needed, likely after Diwali	The main offset to fuel inflation
Fuel	Cost up Rs 80-100 a tonne in each of Q3 and Q4	Q3 partly cushioned by inventory
Incentives	About Rs 50 crore a quarter, versus Rs 45 crore (Rs 80 a tonne) in Q2	Lower GST rate and expired Aligarh benefits weighed
Premium mix	Premium cement is 20% of trade sales, earning about Rs 150 a tonne more	Trade sales are 71% of volume
Green power	Share to rise to 75% by FY30 from 52% in FY26 (56.9% so far this year)	342.3 MW of solar, wind and waste-heat capacity in place

How large will JK Cement become?

Grey cement capacity of 3.23 crore tonnes is set to reach about 4 crore tonnes by FY28 and 5 crore tonnes by FY30. The milestones:

H1FY28An integrated unit at Jaisalmer (30 lakh tonnes of cement, 40 lakh tonnes of clinker) plus two 20 lakh-tonne grinding units in Punjab and Rajasthan, deepening the northern franchise.

H1FY29The Mahan coal block is due to start, supplying fuel at about Rs 1.25 per kcal.

FY28-30About 1.1 crore tonnes of brownfield additions at Muddapur and Panna, roughly 50-60 lakh tonnes each, which are cheaper to build than new sites.

Can the newer businesses pay their way?

Paints: Revenue was Rs 116 crore in the quarter with a Rs 2 crore EBITDA loss, a sharp narrowing from the Rs 40 crore loss in FY26. Management stuck to FY27 revenue of Rs 500-550 crore with positive EBITDA, and expects at least Rs 150 crore of extra revenue in FY28 at a 3-5% margin. A new 75,000-kilolitre JK Maxx plant in Telangana will cost Rs 130 crore, within the Rs 600 crore already sanctioned.

Wall putty: A 6 lakh-tonne plant near Nathdwara, Rajasthan, built for Rs 195 crore, will relieve existing lines running at 90%.

Ready-mix concrete: Revenue, with construction chemicals, rose to Rs 60 crore from Rs 50 crore in the June quarter. The target is Rs 100 crore a quarter by Q4FY27, with plants rising from 23 to 50 by March 2027. Each plant needs about six months to break even.

How much debt will the expansion need?

More, for now. Net debt rose to Rs 4,571 crore in September from Rs 3,370 crore in March, lifting net debt to EBITDA to 1.95 times from 1.45 times. With capex of Rs 3,500 crore in FY27 and about Rs 2,500 crore a year after that, management sees the ratio peaking at 2.25-2.35 times by March 2027, with net debt near Rs 6,000 crore, before easing below 1.5 times within two to three years from FY29.

Anand Rathi's own model is more cautious. It shows negative free cash flow every year to FY29.

How did the forecasts change?

Rs crore	FY27E old	FY27E new	FY28E old	FY28E new	FY29E
Revenue	15,353	15,915 (+3.7%)	17,452	17,824 (+2.1%)	20,083
EBITDA	2,628	2,465 (-6.2%)	3,313	3,026 (-8.7%)	3,524
Net profit	1,090	982 (-9.9%)	1,477	1,249 (-15.4%)	1,506
EPS (Rs)	–	127	–	162	195

Even after the cuts, the brokerage expects volume, revenue and EBITDA to compound at 11%, 14% and 14% a year over FY26-29.

Is the stock expensive against its peers?

Yes, and deliberately so. At 15.3 times FY28E EV/EBITDA and about Rs 10,600 of enterprise value per tonne, JK Cement is the priciest name in Anand Rathi's peer set, just above Shree Cement. The map below plots every peer; dashed lines mark the group medians.

EV per tonne converted from US dollars at Rs 89. Sagar Cement P/E not available. Source: Anand Rathi Research; chart drawn by TopNews.

TopNews checked the target arithmetic. Seventeen times the average of FY28 and FY29 EBITDA gives an enterprise value of about Rs 55,700 crore. After roughly Rs 8,700 crore of net debt and divided across 7.73 crore shares, that is about Rs 6,070 a share, in line with the Rs 6,078 target. The brokerage has rated the stock Buy since August 2023, though this is its fourth target cut in the past five revisions, from a peak of Rs 7,678 in July 2025.

Editor's Note

Valuation basis: The report's front page says 17 times "FY28e" EV/EBITDA, while the valuation section says Sep-28e. Only the Sep-28 basis reproduces Rs 6,078; FY28 alone gives about Rs 5,550.

Fuel impact: The summary puts the cost rise at Rs 70-80 a tonne per quarter; the call notes say Rs 80-100. This article uses the call figure.

Volume guidance: One line guides FY27 volume to grow "by double-digit to 23m tonne", yet FY26 volume was already 2.35 crore tonnes and the model assumes 2.6 crore tonnes. Another dates the 5 crore-tonne goal to "FY20", evidently meaning FY30.

Debt: The model's FY26 debt of Rs 6,646 crore exceeds the Rs 5,136 crore gross debt cited for March 2026, and its FY27 net debt of about Rs 7,860 crore (3.2 times EBITDA) is above the guided peak of Rs 6,000 crore and 2.25-2.35 times.

Per-tonne costs: The five cost lines total Rs 5,680 a tonne, which would leave EBITDA of about Rs 563, not the Rs 849 printed; some income appears to be excluded from the table.

What could derail the BUY case?

1. Fuel prices. A further rise in pet coke, coal or diesel costs, the first risk Anand Rathi lists.

2. Demand. A slowdown in cement demand, the second printed risk. Diwali, a construction ban in Delhi NCR and Uttar Pradesh elections could already disrupt the second half.

3. Leverage (added by TopNews). With free cash flow negative through FY29 in the model, delays or weaker pricing would keep debt elevated for longer.

Terms used in this story

EV/EBITDA: Enterprise value (market value plus net debt) divided by operating profit; the brokerage's chosen yardstick.

Realisation: Average net revenue earned per tonne of cement sold.

Grinding unit: A plant that grinds clinker into cement, usually closer to customers than the kiln.

Brownfield: Expansion at an existing site, typically cheaper and faster than a new plant.

Sources

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, "JK Cement – Strong show even amid escalated cost environment; maintain BUY", Q2FY27 result update dated 27 October 2026. Company data and Bloomberg as cited in the report. Figures converted to crore and lakh by TopNews; US dollar figures converted at Rs 89.

Disclaimer: This TopNews Story is based on a brokerage research report and is for information only. It is not investment advice. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully and consult a registered adviser before investing.

Levels at a glance: JK Cement · BUY (Anand Rathi) · CMP Rs 4,896 · Target Rs 6,078 (from Rs 6,818) · Upside ~24.1% · 52-week Rs 4,672–6,471 · 17x Sep-28E EV/EBITDA

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