Global economic cycle, not who rules New Delhi will drive Indian economy: BofA-ML
Global economic cycle will drive Indian economic growth far more than the outcome of the much-hyped 2014 general elections, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) said in its latest report.
Cautioning against too much significance being given to the upcoming elections, the global commercial & corporate banking giant said that global economic cycle and not 'who rules New Delhi' would drive growth.
In the report, BofA-ML said, "We can only emphasise that the global economic cycle drives growth far more than who rules in New Delhi. It is for this reason we caution against extreme euphoria ala 2009 or utter despair ala 2004 on May 16."
Increase and decrease in Sensex figures have usually been attributed to political announcements in the Asian country. Indian share markets witnessed a 15.9 per cent sell off in May 2004 after the defeat of BJP-led NDA in general elections. After the re-election of incumbent Congress-led UPA government in May 2009, the Sensex had enjoyed a nearly 15 per cent jump.
The newly published report also noted that forex investors are more vigilant, and most of them will likely square off before the elections to steer clear of the event risk.
Opinion polls have placed BJP in the lead, but the BofA-ML report underlined that poll predictions had went wrong in 2004 and 2009.