Geojit Investments Limited has issued a Buy recommendation on Hindalco Industries Limited, the metals flagship of the Aditya Birla Group, setting a 12-month target price of Rs 1,074 against a current market price of Rs 940 — implying a potential upside of roughly 14%. The call, dated July 2, 2026, comes on the back of record annual revenue, resilient upstream aluminium economics in India, and an anticipated earnings recovery at Novelis following operational disruptions at its Oswego facility. Analyst Antu Eapan Thomas of Geojit frames the stock as a large-cap play benefiting from tight global aluminium supply, an energy-transition demand tailwind, and India's infrastructure-led consumption growth, even as a one-time exceptional charge dented headline quarterly profit.

A Record Year, Clouded by One Quarter

Hindalco closed FY26 with consolidated revenue climbing 15.3% year-on-year to an all-time high of Rs 2,74,944 crore, propelled by firmer aluminium and copper realizations alongside robust domestic volumes. EBITDA followed suit, rising 7.3% to a record Rs 38,091 crore, powered by standout performances across India's aluminium upstream, downstream, and copper divisions.

The fourth quarter, however, told a more complicated story. Q4FY26 reported profit after tax tumbled 50.9% year-on-year to Rs 2,597 crore, dragged down by a Rs 4,171 crore exceptional charge tied to the fire at Novelis's Oswego plant in New York. Strip out that one-off item, and the picture flips dramatically: adjusted PAT actually rose 28.2% year-on-year to Rs 6,768 crore, underscoring the underlying strength of operations beneath the accounting noise.

Novelis Weathers a Setback

Novelis, the world's largest aluminium roller and recycler and Hindalco's crown downstream asset, posted an 11% year-on-year rise in segment revenue to Rs 43,117 crore in Q4FY26, aided by improved pricing, a richer product mix, and a weaker rupee. That growth arrived despite a 4% decline in shipment volumes to 917 kilotonnes, a direct consequence of the Oswego fire, which alone cost the business 73 kilotonnes of shipments during the quarter.

Management struck an optimistic tone on the recall, telling analysts that the Oswego hot mill is on track to restart within weeks, in the first quarter of FY27, with full normalization expected to fuel a Novelis earnings rebound from the second quarter onward.

Downstream Momentum Builds at Home

India's Aluminium Downstream segment grew revenue by a striking 35% year-on-year to Rs 4,867 crore in Q4FY26, driven by 18% volume growth to 124 kilotonnes as the business leaned into premiumization and a favorable product mix. Meanwhile, the Aluminium Upstream segment expanded revenue 11% year-on-year to Rs 11,418 crore, supported by stronger realizations and 2% volume growth anchored in resilient domestic demand and ongoing cost discipline.

Capacity Expansion and a Tightening Global Market

Geojit's bullish stance leans heavily on Hindalco's ambitious capacity roadmap. Management reaffirmed that Phase 1 of the Aditya Alumina Refinery and Smelter remains on schedule for commissioning by December 2027, with Phase 2 slated to follow by December 2028, backed by the ramp-up of a captive coal mine designed to reinforce the company's cost curve advantage.

The macro backdrop appears to be working in Hindalco's favor as well. The global aluminium supply deficit is projected to widen to 1.5 million tonnes in 2026, a squeeze attributed to disruptions from West Asia conflict and a scarcity of new smelter capacity worldwide. On the copper side, spot treatment and refining charges have plunged to record lows of minus $0.21 to minus $0.25 per pound, reflecting what management called an "unprecedentedly tight" global concentrate market — a dynamic that, perversely, benefits integrated smelters like Hindalco that profit from scarce processing capacity. The company also expressed confidence that its Meenakshi mine, thanks to a favorable sub-1 strip ratio, will ramp up faster than its Chakla counterpart, with meaningful volume contributions expected from FY29.

The Numbers Behind the Target

Geojit's valuation rests on a sum-of-the-parts framework, blending EV/EBITDA multiples across Hindalco's three core businesses:

Revised estimates for FY27 now project revenue of Rs 3,18,776 crore and adjusted EPS of Rs 105.5, marked up sharply from Geojit's earlier forecasts of Rs 2,66,874 crore and Rs 78.3, respectively — a 34.8% upgrade to per-share earnings that reflects growing confidence in the recovery narrative.

The Levels That Matter

For investors tracking the stock, the key markers from Geojit's note are straightforward: current market price of Rs 940, a 52-week trading range of Rs 657 to Rs 1,179, and a fresh price target of Rs 1,074 on a 12-month horizon — a target that has been steadily raised across Geojit's last several updates, from Rs 792 in September 2025 to Rs 1,034 in January 2026, and now to Rs 1,074. Trailing valuation multiples stand at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6x and EV/EBITDA of 7.9x for FY26, both projected to compress further to 8.9x and 6.3x, respectively, by FY28 as earnings growth outpaces price appreciation.