Ventura Securities has returned to Adani Green Energy Ltd. (AGEL) with a BUY rating, valuing the developer through a discounted cash flow model at Rs 1,713 per share. The thesis: storage lets the company sell daytime sunlight into the evening peak under long-term fixed-price contracts.

A Quarter That Set the Tone

Consolidated revenue from operations rose 16.6% year on year and 26.5% sequentially to Rs 4,431 Crore in Q1 FY27. Operating EBITDA, excluding other income, climbed 31% to Rs 3,985 Crore, and profit attributable to shareholders increased 18.5% to Rs 845 Crore.

Management pegged annualised run-rate EBITDA at about Rs 17,000 Crore and is targeting roughly Rs 21,000 Crore by FY27-end including storage, a run rate rather than full-year guidance.

Why Wind and Hybrid Punch Above Their Weight

Solar makes up 70.1% of capacity but only 54.9% of energy sales. Wind and hybrid, 29.9% of capacity, delivered 45.1% of H1 FY27 output because they run longer each day, as the clocks below show.

About 83% of H1 energy sales moved under long-term contracts, including 25-year fixed-price deals with Adani Energy Solutions. The other 17% was infirm power sold before contracts begin, at about Rs 2.5 per unit.

The Grid Is the Bottleneck

Management estimated in Q1 that curtailment shaved 5% to 7% of EBITDA and expected another 7 GW of evacuation capacity at Khavda by December 2026. The government's Rs 1.36 lakh Crore transmission programme helps, but AGEL gains only as lines serving its own parks are finished.

Storage: Charging Up Fast

The first Khavda battery offers about three hours of discharge at full output. Batteries sell on 15-year fixed-price terms, with indicative capex of Rs 1.5 Crore per MWh, EBITDA of Rs 25 lakh to Rs 30 lakh per MWh and a 15% to 16% IRR hurdle. The maiden 500 MW Chitravathi pumped-storage project is due in FY27, with secured sites exceeding 5 GW.

The Road to 50 GW

AGEL is targeting 50 GW by FY30, about 27% annual growth from 19.3 GW at FY26. FY27 capex of roughly Rs 42,000 Crore funds 5 GW of additions. Policy supplies demand: India targets 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030, against about 308 GW now.

Against the Bloomberg consensus, Ventura is bolder on scale but more conservative on profit: its FY29E revenue of Rs 36,506 Crore sits about 12% above the Street's Rs 32,562 Crore, while its net profit of Rs 5,590 Crore trails consensus of Rs 5,951 Crore.

How the Rs 1,713 Target Is Wired

Ventura's DCF uses a 10% cost of capital and 3.5% terminal growth. Free cash flow turns positive only in FY31, so terminal value carries most of the weight.

What Investors Should Do

At 128x FY26 earnings and about 68% above its 52-week low, the stock is priced for delivery. Long-term investors may consider accumulating on dips with a 24-month target of Rs 1,713, tracking grid availability and the storage build each quarter.