After many false starts, a third front comprising eight parties was finally announced on Monday by former PM and JD (S) leader Deve Gowda. The formation is a significant departure from the 2004 elections, which saw a more direct fight between Congress- and BJP-led alliances.

The Left Front, a major constituent of this formation, was with the Congress the last time, as were Gowda, Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. Another major constituent, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), was with the NDA.

Gowda claimed the front was coming together of like-minded parties wanting equidistance from the Congress and the BJP. The fact, however, is the formation is gambling on a hung parliament.

“In such a situation, the UPA and NDA partners who have been part of third fronts in the past will gravitate towards us. Even the Congress will have to lend support if push comes to shove,” a senior CPI(M) MP said.

Of the front partners, AIADMK’s prospects look the best, while the jury is still out on TDP and TRS.

Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were the two states where the Congress and its allies did well in 2004, but they are not expected to fare as well this time. Jayalalithaa hopes to capitalise on DMK infighting, especially the rift in Tamil Nadu CM M Karunanidhi’s family. TDP and TRS are expected to damage the Congress in Andhra, specifically in Telagana, which saw a 17-MP Congress sweep the last time.

The Left parties are not in a good position in either Kerala or West Bengal, where their tally is expected to come down significantly from 61 seats in 2004.

Nistula Hebbar/ DNA-Daily News & Analysis Source: 3D Syndication