Nairobi  - The war in Somalia, one of Africa's bloodiest ongoing conflicts, shows little sign of letting up as 2008 draws to a close, with analysts warning it may actually continue to intensify.

Somalia has been plagued by chaos and civil war since the ouster of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. The conflict deepened this year as Islamist insurgents stepped up their efforts to seize control of the Horn of Africa nation.

The insurgents have been fighting Somalia's transitional federal government (TFG) since Ethiopian troops helped oust the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in early 2007.

Aid agencies estimate that over 10,000 civilians have died in the crossfire and almost one million have fled their homes since the insurgency began.

Now some 3.2 million Somalis, 40 per cent of the total population, are dependent on humanitarian aid as a result of the conflict, drought and high food prices.

In a sign that the situation seems set to deteriorate further, UN Humanitarian and Resident Coordinator Mark Bowden in December said 919 million dollars would be needed to cover aid operations next year, almost 50 per cent more than in 2008.

Most of the blame for the humanitarian crisis lies at the door of constant unrest.

The government and moderates within the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) - which has ICU representation - have agreed to a ceasefire.

However, it has made little difference on the ground as main insurgent group al-Shabaab has rejected the deal.

This year, al-Shabaab, a radical group that broke off from the ICU, made major gains as the government descended into chaos.

Political infighting reached new heights on December 16 when President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed appointed a new prime minister, defying parliament's opposition to his decision to sack Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Al-Shabaab has said that it would only talk peace once Ethiopian troops left, so when Ethiopia announced in late November it would withdraw by the end of the year it could have been seen as good news.

Should Ethiopia leave, the only international force on the ground will be an undermanned and overwhelmed African Union force.

At least, it will be if the AU peacekeepers stay. The AU force is also threatening to pullout if UN troops are not deployed to replaced the Ethiopians.

But UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said that UN troops will not be sent, as there is "no peace to keep."

Analysts are concerned that the absence of the common enemy, Ethiopia, will lead to infighting between the various groups, each of them made up of internal factions with differing views.

"We could very well see a big splintering of groups and an intensification of the conflict," Roger Middleton, Horn of Africa analyst at London-based think tank Chatham House, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

"The likely scenario is that once Ethiopia is out of the equation the ARS will split, the government will split, al-Shabaab will split and former warlords will come back out," he added.

This is bad news for western governments, in particular the US, who want to see a stable, pro-western government keep the Islamists at bay.

The US says al-Shabaab has links to al-Qaeda and that an Islamist-controlled Somalia would be a breeding ground for terrorism.

While it has no troops on the ground, the US has provided training to its Ethiopian allies and also carried out an airstrike in May that killed al-Shabaab leader Aden Hashi Ayro.

However, Middleton believes that the West may have to accept an Islamist regime in order to finally see peace in Somalia.

"The solution must come from within Somalia," he said. "People's primary concern is going to the shops without getting shot. If they come up with a solution that is not welcome to the western world we have to accept it."

A stable Islamist regime may perversely also be good news for shipping interests.

The chaos in Somalia has fed a boom in piracy, making the Gulf of Aden the most dangerous place in the world for ships.

Over 40 ships have been seized this year, the most high-profile being a Saudi supertanker carrying crude oil worth 100 million dollars.

International warships have flocked to the Gulf of Aden to protect the shipping trade, but the pirates have so far remained undeterred.

"The ICU ended piracy pretty effectively in 2006," said Middleton. "A functioning government can stamp out this problem." (dpa)