Commodity Trading Tips for Crude Oil by KediaCommodity

Crude-OilCrudeoil settled up 1.73% at 6399 gained on concern that escalating violence in Iraq threatens to disrupt supplies from OPEC’s second-largest producer. Crude oil traders continued to track a rebellion in Iraq led by a Sunni Islamist group that threatened to take Baghdad after capturing key cities elsewhere in the country earlier in the week. Markets breathed a sigh of relief, however, after U.S. President said he won't sent troops to Iraq and added oil continues to flow normally out of the country, which sent oil prices off earlier highs. Iraq produced approximately 3.5mbls a day of oil last month, making it OPEC’s 2nd-biggest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, in the U.S., data released Friday showed that that U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in June. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June came in at 81.2 vs 81.9 in May. The report came a day after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May, but the previous month was revised higher. The Commerce Department said Thursday that U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in May, falling short of expectations for a 0.6% gain. However, retail sales for April were revised up to a 0.5% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.1%. In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Fed policy meeting. Data from the CFTC released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in the week ending June 10. Net longs totaled 341,680 contracts as of last week, down 0.4% from net longs of 343,005 in the preceding week. Now Crudeoil is getting support at 6328 and below same could see a test of 6257 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 6442, a move above could see prices testing 6485.

Trading Ideas:

Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6257-6485.

Crudeoil rallied as concerns persisted that an insurgency in Iraq could disrupt oil exports from the second-largest OPEC producer.

Oil markets should be balanced during the second half of this year with extra production sufficient to meet growing demand.

The IEA played down fears over the possible sudden loss of oil exports from Iraq in its monthly Oil Market Report.