Market Outlook, Analysis by Nirmal Bang Securities

Market Outlook, Analysis by Nirmal Bang SecuritiesThe benchmark indices saw yet another unpredictable day, and ended on a pessimistic note for the third consecutive day.

The BSE Sensex marked its closure at 10,817, down 81 points, after touching an intraday peak of 11,036 and low of 10,715.

In contrast, the broad-based Nifty closed after losing 35 points at 3,330. It hit an intraday high of 3,401 and low of 3,296 respectively.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap Index dropped 40 points and 65 points respectively.

Heavy selling action was witnessed across select capital goods, metals, pharma and banking stocks.

The bulls are finding it tricky to hold the impetus as selling pressure is seen at higher levels. The market seen a huge distribution happening during the last three days and going forward one has to be cautious.

The short term trend has indeed turned negative and the 13-day exponential moving average for nifty which is placed at 3,285 has to be held in coming sessions. If 3,285 is decisively broken then fresh weakness could prevail in the market and we could witness panic sell-off.

The market is tricky at this juncture as nifty has broken the lower level of the short trading band of 3,300-3,420 on an intra-day basis but closed above the 3,300 mark. In the last three sessions we have seen nifty making lower top and lower bottom, which is not a good sign. Nifty has to cross and sustain above the 3,420-3,440 levels to gain more strength in coming days or this rally might take a pause.

For the expiry support for nifty is placed at 3,230 – 3,155 region and a fall below will create more pressure and nifty can fall upto 3,095, which could be the best level to enter for a medium term investors. Strong intra-day resistance area is at 3,365-3420.

Huge selling pressure is there on the benchmark indices but focus can be shifted to mid-cap stocks at lower levels from an investment point. Markets are safe only if nifty maintains above 3,440.

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