Mustard seed prices remained firm with steady demand from crushers and stockiest amid slow supplies. Today Mustard seed are expected to trade on a mixed to negative note as weak edible oilseeds and sluggish demand for mustard seed may keep prices under downside pressure. While Mustard meal export demand, declining arrivals and lower output will support prices to have a sharp fall. In the Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the price gained 25.75 rupee to 3713 rupees per 20kgs.

As support seen this week after the report that Rajasthan government has lowered the VAT on rapeseed from 5 to 3 %. Also Mustard meal export increased 17.6% to 99,054 tn in June ’14 compared to 84,198 tn in June ’13. Sowing of mustard seed in 2013-14 stood at 7.13 mn ha as against 6.73 mn ha last year. Agriculture ministry in its 3rd advance estimates pegged 2013-14 mustard output at 7.8mn tn, down 2.9% compared to 8.03 mn tn in 2012-13. While production of rapeseed will increase this season from France to Romania to the U. K., pushing prices lower at the same time supplies are rising for competing crops including soybeans.

Rapeseed production in the 28-country EU is forecast at
22.4 million tons, 5.6 percent more than last year that compares with an estimate of 21.54 million tons released July 7 by the European Commission. The U. S. Department of Agriculture’s forecast for the EU is 22 million tons, topping a record
21.6 million tons set in 2009. According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, the global production of mustard seed in 2014-15 is expected to drop by 3.4 per cent to 68.64 million tonnes from 71 million tonnes a year ago.

In India, mustard seed is the third largest produced oilseed after soybean and groundnut. India has a negligible international trade in mustard seed and oil, and so the prices are influenced mainly by domestic fundamentals rather than global factors. However, India has a high trade in mustard meal exports and is the second largest oil meal exported after soy meal. The largest mustard seed producing states in India are Rajasthan (45%), Haryana (13%), Madhya Pradesh (13%) and Uttar Pradesh (11%).

The domestic mustard seed production has witnessed a huge fluctuation and marginal growth in the past two decades. The sowing for the new season has begun and is expected to be higher as lucrative returns and hike in MSP will make farmers to opt for the crop. The government has declared Rs 50 per quintal hike in last year’s MSP to Rs 3,050 for the coming season. In Rajasthan, major mustard growing districts are Alwar, Bharatpur, Kota, Jaipur, Sri Ganganagar and Hanumangarh. In the Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the price gained 25.75 rupee to 3713 rupees per 20kgs.

Technical Outlook: Now Rmseed is getting support at 3560 and below same could see a test of 3470 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3680, a move above could see prices testing 6760.