BP’s annual Energy Outlook report is storm-proof for Shareholders

In February, BP released its annual Energy Outlook report where it detailed results of most likely energy scenario out to 2035. In that scenario, global fossil use increased by more than 30%. The scenario is consistent with a scenario that International Energy Agency (IEA) uses to illustrate the trajectory towards global warming of 6C.

In the annual report, BP stated that climate change is a big problem that should be solved. As per the report, current carbon emission projections seem unsustainable. The report suggests that BP wants to assure its shareholders that the company is storm-proof. Modeling by BP is based on assumptions about population growth and prices of fossil fuel.

The new report by BP indicated healthy future for share prices and dividends. The company’s projected increase in energy demand and associated carbon emissions would result in CO2 concentrations of 600 parts per million. Earlier, Shell had released its Oceans and Mountains scenarios. Those scenarios were similarly inconsistent with restricting warming to 2C.

To manage climate policy uncertainty, many big companies have been operating with an assumed moderate carbon price about US$40 per ton. This is factored into the firm’s project-ranking and decision-making process. Such types of risk management let corporations to respond quickly to changes in rules by government.

Bob Dudley, chief executive officer of BP, has called for a global price on carbon. He has given the scale of the challenge faced by negotiators at international climate talks in Paris this year. A 2014 study by EY Global Oil and Gas Reserves showed that BP has larger amount of natural gas reserves compared with other international oil companies. According to the study, the amassed natural gas reserves are far ahead of the company’s main competitors in the international arena.