USD Technical Forex Analysis for Daily Traders

The USD continued in solid two-way action driven mostly by the changing fortunes of stocks the past 24 hours. Traders note that most of the volume in the major pairs was ahead of the London fix when equities prices were higher in New York; likely a late sell-off on the release of the Fed's Beige Book contributed to the decline in stocks late in the day. Despite the heavy focus on equities today, lower Gold and Oil prices helped to help underpin the USD across the board but most pairs didn't extend past early New York volatility this morning.

GBP held the 1.4700 range all day not dropping or rallying despite recent large ranges; traders note that the market is on pins and needles regarding tomorrows rate announcement by the BOE. Most analysts are expecting a full 100 BP cut while others leave the door open for more. EURO is also lower but still holding the 1.2600 handle in light trade. The rate never regained the 1.2700 handle in late trade and it is likely the same scenario is in ply with analysts looking for a 50 BP cut or slightly more. In either case, the rate cut has been heavily discussed and is likely well factored-in to current pricing. A case of "buy the rumor/sell the fact" could develop after early whipsaw around the rate announcements. USD/JPY dropped to a new traded low today at 92.53 before regaining the 93.00 handle as stocks firmed mid day; the rate gives back those gains late as stocks wilt across the board. Traders note that large stops are likely resting under the 92.50 area suggesting that a lower open for the Nikkei may drop the rate hard on the open.

USD/CAD rallied in "spooky" trade as thin conditions exaggerated the rally into the high print at 1.2671; the rate fell back to trade the 1.2500 handle and aggressive traders can be sellers above the 1.2580 area in my view. USD/CHF continues to grind into highs again on light volume; most of the action above the 1.2100 handle is likely late buyers and short-covering but traders note anything is possible with such thin volume. In my view, the USD is continuing to range trade and continues to sketch out a high. More bad news for the US economy is on the way this week and it is hard to build a bullish case for the USD when so much bad news is out there. Look for the USD to consolidate overnight ahead of US data in the morning. If the highs for the week are in the greenback is likely to make new lows ahead of NFP on Friday.

Today's US Dollar Trading
• USD holds in two-way action, fails to extend ranges
• GPB holds support as does EURO
• Volumes again very light

Overnight Preview
• Look for more consolidation and two-way action
• USD to get quiet ahead of US data, equities drive overnight likely

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
• 9:15am USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
• 10:00am USD Factory Orders m/m
• 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage
• 11:15am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
• 4:30pm USD FOMC Member Kroszner Speaks

Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com

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