Axis Securities has issued a BUY recommendation for Welspun Corp Ltd, a global powerhouse in line pipes, with a target price of Rs 875 per share, signaling a 10% upside from the current market price of Rs 796 as of December 8, 2025. This research report underscores the company's robust order book exceeding Rs 23,500 Cr, strategic expansions in high-growth markets like the US and Saudi Arabia, and unwavering financial discipline amid ambitious capex plans. Investors stand to benefit from sustained revenue visibility, elevated return ratios, and an attractive valuation at 7.5x FY28 EBITDA, positioning Welspun Corp for resilient growth in metal pipes and infrastructure sectors.

Corporate Profile and Global Footprint

Established in 1995 as the flagship of Welspun World, Welspun Corp Ltd commands a premier position among the world's top manufacturers of large-diameter line pipes. The company diversifies across pipe solutions including line pipes, ductile iron (DI) pipes, stainless steel, and building materials such as TMT rebars and Sintex water tanks. Boasting an installed pipe manufacturing capacity of 2.2 million tonnes per annum (MMTPA), it operates cutting-edge facilities in Anjar, Bhopal, Mandya, and Jhagadia in India, complemented by strategic outposts in Little Rock, USA, and Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

This expansive infrastructure not only fortifies supply chain resilience but also caters to burgeoning global demand in energy, water, and infrastructure domains. With a consolidated order book of Rs 23,500 Cr as of October 2025, Welspun Corp ensures multi-year revenue predictability.

Unprecedented Order Book Fuels Visibility

Welspun Corp's order pipeline gleams with promise, headlined by a record-high consolidated book of Rs 23,500 Cr, translating to over two years of visibility for US operations and at least one year elsewhere. The line pipe segment clocks 1.3 million tonnes, evenly split between India and the US at 600 kt each, while DI pipes tally 355 kt. Recent US wins amounting to $715 million lock in mill bookings through FY28, bolstered by India's export surge and impending water infrastructure initiatives.

• US Dominance: LNG exports and data center power needs keep the Little Rock mill saturated until FY28, prompting LSAW and HFIW capacity expansions.
• KSA Thrust: Leveraging Vision 2030 via associate EPIC, new greenfield LSAW and DI facilities target Aramco's Rs 10 Bn annual capex and colossal water projects.

Financial Fortitude Amid Capex Surge

Navigating a Rs 5,500 Cr capex blueprint over FY25-27—with Rs 1,800 Cr already deployed in FY25 and H1FY26—Welspun Corp sustains a net cash position of Rs 11 Cr post-Rs 950 Cr outlay in H1FY26. Prioritizing internal accruals, the firm reported Rs 1,049 Cr net cash as of March 2025, underscoring prodigious free cash flow generation. Management reaffirms FY26 EBITDA guidance of Rs 2,200 Cr, with H1FY26 delivering Rs 1,186 Cr, and pledges perpetual ROCE above 20%, clocking an annualized 24% in H1FY26.

Trading at 15x/8.4x 12MF consensus P/E and EV/EBITDA, the stock's FY28 valuation at 7.5x EBITDA exudes allure. Market cap stands at Rs 20,969 Cr with 26.3 Cr shares outstanding; 52-week range: Rs 666-995.

Strategic Growth Catalysts

Welspun Corp's ascent hinges on multifaceted tailwinds. In the US, a paradigm shift fueled by LNG proliferation and data center electrification ensures structural demand, with expansions amplifying throughput. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 unlocks Aramco tenders and hydration infrastructure, where new mills will harvest lucrative contracts.

• India Exports: Robust overseas pull, augmented by domestic water schemes.
• DI Pipes Momentum: 355 kt backlog signals hydration sector inflection.
• Global Scale: Largest line pipe entity, primed for KSA/USA/India synergies.

Investment Levels and Targets

For discerning investors, strategic entry levels optimize risk-reward. Accumulate aggressively at Rs 780-790 support, bolstering positions on dips to Rs 750-760, where historical bases align with 200-DMA. Target Rs 875 within 3-6 months, with stretch potential to Rs 950 on order execution and EBITDA beats. Trailing stops at Rs 760 safeguard gains amid volatility.

Key Risks and Mitigation

While the thesis radiates optimism, headwinds merit vigilance. Order execution delays, new capacity commissioning lags, or export-disruptive trade policies could erode momentum. Mitigation resides in diversified backlogs, cash buffers, and management's proven execution pedigree. Axis Punch's high-conviction call, spanning 3-6 months, harmonizes company catalysts, macroeconomic currents, and valuation asymmetry for superior returns.