Ramco Cements Share Price Target at Rs 1,060: Geojit Investments

Ramco Cements Share Price Target at Rs 1,060: Geojit Investments
Geojit Investments Limited, a SEBI-registered research house, has upgraded The Ramco Cements Limited (TRCL) to BUY, setting a 12-month target of Rs 1,060 against a current market price of Rs 882 — an implied upside near 20 percent. The call, issued June 17, 2026 by senior analyst Vincent K A, follows a strong fourth quarter in which revenue rose 9 percent year-on-year, EBITDA jumped 16 percent, and adjusted profit nearly quadrupled. Falling fuel costs, climbing utilization, and aggressive deleveraging anchor the bullish thesis, even as a new Tamil Nadu mineral tax dented raw material costs.

A Sixth-Largest Player Finds Its Footing

  • The flagship of the Ramco Group: TRCL ranks as India's sixth-largest cement producer, commanding roughly 24 million tonnes of annual capacity split between the South (20MT) and East (4MT).
  • Revenue accelerates: Fourth-quarter sales climbed 9 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,606 crore, powered by a 5 percent rise in realizations and a further 3 percent uptick in volumes.
  • Utilization snaps back: Capacity utilization jumped to 83 percent from 73 percent the previous quarter, a signal of stronger volume absorption and tighter plant efficiency.

Margins Widen Despite a New Tax Bite

  • EBITDA outpaces sales growth: Operating profit rose 16 percent year-on-year to Rs 373 crore, with EBITDA per tonne up 12 percent, lifting margins to 14.3 percent from 13.4 percent.
  • A new cost headwind: Tamil Nadu's mineral-bearing land tax of Rs 160 per tonne of limestone added roughly Rs 37 crore in costs, pushing raw material expenses up 8 percent year-on-year.
  • Offset by discipline: A 4 percent reduction in other expenses and a friendlier power-and-fuel mix more than absorbed the tax hit.
Rs Crore Q4FY26 Q4FY25 YoY % Q3FY26 QoQ %
Sales 2,606 2,392 9 2,102 24
EBITDA 373 321 16 281 33
EBITDA Margin 14.3% 13.4% +90bps 13.4% +90bps
Reported PAT 146 31 372 387 -62
Adjusted PAT 91 23 297 28 228

Profit Jumps on Cheaper Debt and Asset Sales

  • Interest costs retreat: A continued deleveraging push cut interest expenses 16 percent year-on-year to Rs 95 crore, a direct driver of the nearly fourfold rise in adjusted profit.
  • A one-off lift: A Rs 68 crore gain from divesting non-core assets pushed reported PAT up about 4.7 times year-on-year to Rs 146 crore.
  • Balance sheet repair: Debt-to-equity has been pared to 0.5, with the company guiding Rs 800 crore of capital expenditure for FY27.

Capacity Build-Out Stays on Schedule

  • Eyeing 31 MTPA: Management targets total capacity of roughly 31 million tonnes per annum through debottlenecking of existing integrated units and a brownfield expansion at Kolimigundala during FY27.
  • New green capacity: A 15 MW waste-heat recovery system and a second kiln line at Kolimigundala are both slated for commissioning in FY27, following Rs 997 crore of capex already deployed in FY26.
  • Non-core monetization continues: The company has raised Rs 1,098 crore from non-core asset sales over the past two years, with roughly Rs 150 crore of further disposals in motion.

Fuel Mix Turns Friendlier

  • Cheaper energy basket: Blended fuel cost eased to $124 per tonne in FY26 from $127 in FY25, even as the cost per kilocalorie rose modestly to Rs 1.59.
  • Power and fuel costs decline: Per-tonne power and fuel expense fell to Rs 1,098 in FY26 from Rs 1,123 in FY25, helped by a sharp cut in the pet coke mix to 47 percent from 63 percent.
  • Greener grid: The share of green power in the company's energy mix rose to 40 percent from 36 percent a year earlier.

Outlook: Infrastructure Spending Meets Softer Input Costs

  • Demand tailwind: Geojit expects sustained government spending on infrastructure and housing to support volume growth, with cement realizations likely to hold steady.
  • Geopolitics eases pressure: The de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict is seen softening energy costs, a tailwind for margins across the sector.
  • Valuation basis: Geojit values TRCL at 14 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA to arrive at its Rs 1,060 target, formally upgrading the stock from Accumulate to BUY.
Rs Crore FY26A FY27E FY28E
Revenue 9,013 9,956 11,015
EBITDA 1,438 1,576 1,917
EBITDA Margin 16.0% 15.8% 17.4%
Adjusted PAT 279 357 652
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 11.8 15.0 27.4
P/E (x) 74.8 58.7 32.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.1 15.6 12.2
Current Market Price
Rs 882
12-Month Target
Rs 1,060
Implied Upside
+20%
52-Week Range
Rs 838 – 1,214
Market Cap
Rs 20,841 cr

The Bottom Line

Geojit's upgrade marks a reversal from its February 2026 Accumulate stance, even though the fresh target of Rs 1,060 sits well below the Rs 1,309 level the brokerage had flagged just four months earlier — a reminder that the stock's own slide, down over 13 percent on a one-year view, has done as much to create the upside as the operational turnaround itself. For investors, the thesis hinges on three pillars: sustained margin recovery as fuel costs ease, continued balance-sheet repair through deleveraging and asset sales, and capacity growth toward 31 MTPA executing on schedule.

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