Ramco Cements Share Price Target at Rs 1,060: Geojit Investments
Geojit Investments Limited, a SEBI-registered research house, has upgraded The Ramco Cements Limited (TRCL) to BUY, setting a 12-month target of Rs 1,060 against a current market price of Rs 882 — an implied upside near 20 percent. The call, issued June 17, 2026 by senior analyst Vincent K A, follows a strong fourth quarter in which revenue rose 9 percent year-on-year, EBITDA jumped 16 percent, and adjusted profit nearly quadrupled. Falling fuel costs, climbing utilization, and aggressive deleveraging anchor the bullish thesis, even as a new Tamil Nadu mineral tax dented raw material costs.
A Sixth-Largest Player Finds Its Footing
- The flagship of the Ramco Group: TRCL ranks as India's sixth-largest cement producer, commanding roughly 24 million tonnes of annual capacity split between the South (20MT) and East (4MT).
- Revenue accelerates: Fourth-quarter sales climbed 9 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,606 crore, powered by a 5 percent rise in realizations and a further 3 percent uptick in volumes.
- Utilization snaps back: Capacity utilization jumped to 83 percent from 73 percent the previous quarter, a signal of stronger volume absorption and tighter plant efficiency.
Margins Widen Despite a New Tax Bite
- EBITDA outpaces sales growth: Operating profit rose 16 percent year-on-year to Rs 373 crore, with EBITDA per tonne up 12 percent, lifting margins to 14.3 percent from 13.4 percent.
- A new cost headwind: Tamil Nadu's mineral-bearing land tax of Rs 160 per tonne of limestone added roughly Rs 37 crore in costs, pushing raw material expenses up 8 percent year-on-year.
- Offset by discipline: A 4 percent reduction in other expenses and a friendlier power-and-fuel mix more than absorbed the tax hit.
| Rs Crore | Q4FY26 | Q4FY25 | YoY % | Q3FY26 | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 2,606 | 2,392 | 9 | 2,102 | 24 |
| EBITDA | 373 | 321 | 16 | 281 | 33 |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.3% | 13.4% | +90bps | 13.4% | +90bps |
| Reported PAT | 146 | 31 | 372 | 387 | -62 |
| Adjusted PAT | 91 | 23 | 297 | 28 | 228 |
Profit Jumps on Cheaper Debt and Asset Sales
- Interest costs retreat: A continued deleveraging push cut interest expenses 16 percent year-on-year to Rs 95 crore, a direct driver of the nearly fourfold rise in adjusted profit.
- A one-off lift: A Rs 68 crore gain from divesting non-core assets pushed reported PAT up about 4.7 times year-on-year to Rs 146 crore.
- Balance sheet repair: Debt-to-equity has been pared to 0.5, with the company guiding Rs 800 crore of capital expenditure for FY27.
Capacity Build-Out Stays on Schedule
- Eyeing 31 MTPA: Management targets total capacity of roughly 31 million tonnes per annum through debottlenecking of existing integrated units and a brownfield expansion at Kolimigundala during FY27.
- New green capacity: A 15 MW waste-heat recovery system and a second kiln line at Kolimigundala are both slated for commissioning in FY27, following Rs 997 crore of capex already deployed in FY26.
- Non-core monetization continues: The company has raised Rs 1,098 crore from non-core asset sales over the past two years, with roughly Rs 150 crore of further disposals in motion.
Fuel Mix Turns Friendlier
- Cheaper energy basket: Blended fuel cost eased to $124 per tonne in FY26 from $127 in FY25, even as the cost per kilocalorie rose modestly to Rs 1.59.
- Power and fuel costs decline: Per-tonne power and fuel expense fell to Rs 1,098 in FY26 from Rs 1,123 in FY25, helped by a sharp cut in the pet coke mix to 47 percent from 63 percent.
- Greener grid: The share of green power in the company's energy mix rose to 40 percent from 36 percent a year earlier.
Outlook: Infrastructure Spending Meets Softer Input Costs
- Demand tailwind: Geojit expects sustained government spending on infrastructure and housing to support volume growth, with cement realizations likely to hold steady.
- Geopolitics eases pressure: The de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict is seen softening energy costs, a tailwind for margins across the sector.
- Valuation basis: Geojit values TRCL at 14 times FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA to arrive at its Rs 1,060 target, formally upgrading the stock from Accumulate to BUY.
| Rs Crore | FY26A | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,013 | 9,956 | 11,015 |
| EBITDA | 1,438 | 1,576 | 1,917 |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.0% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| Adjusted PAT | 279 | 357 | 652 |
| Adjusted EPS (Rs) | 11.8 | 15.0 | 27.4 |
| P/E (x) | 74.8 | 58.7 | 32.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 17.1 | 15.6 | 12.2 |
Current Market Price
Rs 882
12-Month Target
Rs 1,060
Implied Upside
+20%
52-Week Range
Rs 838 – 1,214
Market Cap
Rs 20,841 cr
The Bottom Line
Geojit's upgrade marks a reversal from its February 2026 Accumulate stance, even though the fresh target of Rs 1,060 sits well below the Rs 1,309 level the brokerage had flagged just four months earlier — a reminder that the stock's own slide, down over 13 percent on a one-year view, has done as much to create the upside as the operational turnaround itself. For investors, the thesis hinges on three pillars: sustained margin recovery as fuel costs ease, continued balance-sheet repair through deleveraging and asset sales, and capacity growth toward 31 MTPA executing on schedule.
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