Reliance Industries stock jumped 2 percent on Friday on renewed buying interest and overall improvement in market sentiment. The stock is currently looking bullish on technical charts. However, as there has been a new development in Israel-Iran war with US attack on three locations, we can expect higher volatility in the markets on Monday. While Reliance remains strong on technical charts, the overall market sentiment will guide the stock on Monday. Markets have largely ignored the Israel Iran war but the upcoming trading session could be much different.

With strong Q4 earnings, capital-efficient strategic moves, and a wave of renewed institutional confidence, the conglomerate stands poised at the threshold of a new growth cycle. Despite some volatility in the past year, analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on the stock, and foreign institutional flows are once again favoring India Inc., with RIL at the epicenter.

Recent Stock Performance: A Resilient Climb Despite Sectoral Hiccups

As of June 20, 2025, RIL’s stock price stood at ₹1,464, posting a 2.04% intraday gain and returning 16.53% over the past three months. The monthly and weekly performances also clocked respectable returns of 3.92% and 3.68%, respectively. However, on a 12-month basis, the stock was slightly in the red with a -0.51% annual return, indicating some turbulence amid global and sectoral headwinds.

The stock’s 52-week trading band lies between ₹1,114.85 and ₹1,608.80, with the current price closer to its upper bound—a signal of revived investor sentiment. Market capitalization remains formidable at ₹19.84 lakh crore, solidifying RIL’s place as the most valuable conglomerate in India.

Financial Snapshot: FY25 Paints a Solid Operating Picture

In FY25, RIL reported total revenues of ₹10,71,174 crore and a net profit of ₹81,309 crore, reflecting consistent profitability amid a complex macro environment. Return on equity (ROE) clocked in at 8.51%, while valuation metrics stayed relatively moderate, with a P/E ratio of 27.85 and a P/B ratio of 3.91.

Q4 FY25 alone saw net profits rise to ₹19,407 crore, a 2.41% YoY increase, beating analyst estimates and setting the tone for a robust performance narrative.

FIIs Return, Block Deals Recalibrate Portfolio Dynamics

A key development in June was the net inflow of ₹8,710 crore from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) into Indian equities. The reversal of their earlier selling streak was pivotal in triggering a broader market rally, with Reliance Industries among the biggest beneficiaries.

In a landmark move, RIL offloaded a 3.6% stake in Asian Paints, netting ₹7,704 crore and achieving a 23x return on a 2008 investment. This transaction is being widely hailed as a masterstroke in long-term capital appreciation and strategic reallocation.

Analyst Sentiment: Bullish Consensus, Upward Revisions Abound

The analyst consensus is overwhelmingly positive. As of June 2025, over 91% of 35 analysts recommended a “BUY,” with the average target price at ₹1,570.4. Several brokerage firms updated their outlook post-Q4 results, signaling optimism around core and emerging business segments.

Here’s a snapshot of target price changes and rationales:

Strategic Commentary: Brokerage Views Reveal Deep-Rooted Optimism

Nuvama emphasized a 3% YoY EBITDA growth, attributing it to robust performances across divisions and the commissioning of the Heterojunction Technology (HJT) module, which unlocks new energy potential.

Nomura and CLSA aligned on upcoming Jio tariff hikes, the Jio IPO opportunity, and digital transformation as near-term catalysts.

JP Morgan raised its target from ₹1,530 to ₹1,568, expressing confidence in RIL’s margin resilience and sector-wide normalization, while Bernstein flagged a compelling valuation discount of 15% compared to its 3-year average multiples.

Growth Levers: Diversification and Digital Acceleration

Retail and Digital Surge: Jio is forecasted to deliver 18% revenue CAGR and 21% EBITDA CAGR from FY25 to FY27. Meanwhile, Reliance Retail’s quick-commerce vertical continues to scale rapidly, reinforcing omnichannel dominance.

Energy and O2C Recovery: The oil-to-chemicals business has regained margin strength, aided by global refinery closures and tightening supply conditions.

New Energy Bets: The launch of the HJT module facility and continued investment in renewable infrastructure signal a decisive strategic tilt towards sustainability, placing RIL among the global leaders in the green energy shift.

Risks and Headwinds: Telecom, Execution, and External Volatility

Despite the optimism, several caution flags remain:

Telecom Sensitivity: Jio’s ARPU trajectory and subscriber base growth are critical to valuation sustainability. A slip here could invite a bearish re-rating.

Petchem & Refining: A sluggish recovery in China or prolonged global economic uncertainty may compress margins in petrochemical segments.

High Capex Exposure: Capital-intensive new ventures may dilute near-term returns if execution lags expectations.

Geopolitical and Commodity Volatility: External factors like oil price swings and Middle East instability continue to pose macro-level risks.

Strategic Moves and Shareholder Communications

RIL’s participation in Jefferies' India Corporate Access Day reinforced its transparent investor communication ethos. No unpublished price-sensitive information was released, but the company reaffirmed commitment to growth, value unlocking, and global best practices.

The Asian Paints stake sale, valued at ₹7,704 crore, exemplifies RIL’s ability to strategically rotate capital—freeing up cash for growth while capturing outsized long-term returns.

Outlook: Short-Term Momentum, Long-Term Confidence

In the short-to-medium term, multiple tailwinds are at play:

Reversal of FII outflows

Institutional conviction in core business segments

Jio IPO prospects and pricing power

Margin resilience in the O2C business

Uptick in free cash flows and moderated capex

Brokerage targets range from ₹1,515 to ₹1,708, pointing to a 10–20% upside, with bullish outliers forecasting a 31% gain if all cylinders fire.

Bottomline: Reliance Industries Eyes a Multi-Sector Expansion Cycle

Having navigated a challenging macro backdrop in 2024, Reliance Industries enters 2025 with renewed vigor and multi-pronged growth. Whether through the deepening of its digital moat, acceleration in retail, or pioneering renewable initiatives, the company is reasserting itself as a model of diversified resilience.

Analysts—from Bernstein and Nomura to Motilal Oswal and Morgan Stanley—see a company executing well across verticals, even amid lingering risks. Most agree the risk-reward trade-off is favorable, especially given current valuations and the vast runway ahead.

In short: Reliance Industries is not just staying relevant in India’s corporate narrative—it’s scripting the next chapter. For investors with a medium- to long-term horizon, the stock offers an attractive proposition grounded in fundamentals, fueled by innovation, and supported by institutional trust.