Energy Market Outlook and Sector Updates: Nirmal Bang

natural gasU. S. crude futures ended lower on Monday, as players booked profits after prices hit a near six-month high on Friday.

New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas futures trimmed early losses but still ended lower on Monday, as mild weather forecasts, growing supplies and profit taking weighed on the complex despite improved technicals after last week's strong gains.

Oil markets tracked Wall Street, where investors also cashed in after a two-month climb. Several banks launched share offerings to pay off government bailout money that somewhat cooled interest in the financial sector. But crude futures' losses were limited as some speculative money came in late and with some refinery problems helping pare Gasoline’s early sharp losses.

Indications that OPEC may not cut output for political reasons when they meet on May 28 in Vienna to review policy also belong on the bearish side of today's balance, given the context where inventories are still trending higher, Citi Futures Perspective, New York said.

Despite the sharp slide in gas drilling that promises to tighten supplies and some positive economic data that has also backed some recent buying, many traders remain skeptical of the upside, at least until hotter weather kicks up demand.

AccuWeather. com expects temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest of the US, key gas consuming regions, to remain near normal for the next week, with highs in the 60s and low-70s Fahrenheit range not likely to generate much heating or cooling load.

Baker Hughes said Friday the number of U. S. rigs drilling for natural gas fell 11 to 730, down about 50 percent from the same week last year and the lowest level since Jan. 31, 2003, when there were 728 gas rigs operating.

On the storage front, last week's report from the U. S. Energy Information Administration showed total domestic gas inventories of
1.918 trillion cubic feet stood at 491 billion cubic feet, or 34 percent, above last year and 362 bcf, or 23 percent, above the five-year average.

Strong import number from China may support crude oil prices during the day and it may test $59/barrel but we recommend booking profits at these levels as markets are overbought and may witness some healthy correction.

Crude prices are in an uptrend taking resistance at 2880-900 levels. Looking at the RSI, the RSI is taking resistance at the earlier high in RSI at 70 levels. Thus one should be cautious in buying crude at the current levels. Prices may see some support around
2740 levels on downside.

However, crude can continue its uptrend if breaches 2880-900 levels. Thus one can buy crude today above 2880 levels.