Energy Trading Update and Market Outlook: Nirmal Bang
U. S. crude oil futures for May delivery edged lower by 18 cents to $50.15. The contract settled 35 cents higher at $50.33 on Friday, buoyed by news of a rebound in U. S. consumer confidence and better-than-expected quarterly earnings Natural Gas prices shot up to $3.729 from $3.599 this sharp rally was attributed to short covering ahead of expiry.
Crude oil speculators on the NYMEX decreased net long positions in the week to April 14, according to data from the U. S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. Speculators moved to a net long 4,962 positions during the week, from 12,493 positions in the week to March 31.
OPEC will be taking a big risk if it does not make a further adjustment to oil supply, a newspaper quoted Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil as saying on Sunday. OPEC should create an oil price band of $70-$90 a barrel if oil prices stabilize, Venezuela's oil minister said on Friday, adding he expected prices to reach $60 per barrel by year end.
U. S. crude oil futures corrected initially by $1 during the day due to strength in U. S. dollar and may trade down during the day. We believe prices may not trade beyond $48 during the day and these are the levels one can book profits on short positions in crude oil.
Natural gas looks strong as more than 175 Natural gas rigs have closed their operation since the start of year 2009.
Natural Gas prices have seen a down-wards consolidation between 195-75. Prices on Friday breached the trend line on the upside and managed to close above the trend line. Thus the Natural gas prices indicate strength to move upside till 195 and above 195 prices can move up till 205, the earlier resistance.
The Increasing Volumes at the lower levels along with the cross-over of divergence on the up-side with MACD supports the up-side movement in the prices. Thus during the day, one can buy Natural Gas (May Contract) between 192-194, with a target of 203 and a stop loss of 189.
The Crude oil is forming a symmetric triangular, thus prices can move in the direction of the breakout. There is a mixed trend in crude at the current levels. If it breaks downside, Crude can take support around 2500 levels. However, breaking 2500 level can move crude negative. Looking at the high volumes with green candles, we do not recommend selling in crude at these levels, as any break-out above 2660 levels can take prices upwards and can resume the uptrend.