Soybean settled down -1.06% at 3165 once again after prices recovered in the early trades of Monday on short covering at lower levels and settled up by 1.23% higher. While today again we have seen fall in the prices declined on good rains in the soybean belts, increased sowing, weak soy meal export and weak overseas soybean markets. According to Ministry of Agriculture soybean planting as on 4th September is reported at 10.96 mn ha compared to 12.17 mn ha last year.

There have been concerns over below normal monsoon this season, emergence of El-Nino and shortage of seeds for kharif 2014 sowing. CCEA has kept the MSP of soybean unchanged at Rs. 2500-2560/qtl. The Ministry of Agriculture in its 4th Advance Estimates, projected 2013-14 soybean output at 11.99 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13. Soymeal exports in August '14 have declined 98.49% to 2,778 tn from 183,555 tn in August '13 on poor demand and lower availability for crushing due to higher Indian quotes for foreign buyers.

Meanwhile International Markets CBOT Soybean Nov futures traded on a negative note on Monday on good crop conditions, expectations of higher yields and a bumper output and settled 1.27% lower. While steady rainfall can be witnessed in western parts of India; as per IMD the deficiency rainfall deficiency remained at 15% as on 3rd Sept, from south west monsoon. There is expectation that the crop arrivals will delay by a month which can drive the prices north. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.23% to settled at 72820 while prices down -34 rupee, now Soybean is getting support at 3141 and below same could see a test of 3116 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3190, a move above could see prices testing 3214.

Trading Ideas:

Soyabean trading range for the day is 3114-3212.

Soyabean dropped on good rains in the soybean belts, increased sowing, weak soy meal export and weak overseas markets.

Ministry of Agriculture in its 4th Advance Estimates, projected 2013-14 soybean output at 11.99 mn tn as against 14.67 mn tn in 2012-13.

CBOT Soybean dropped on good crop conditions, expectations of higher yields and a bumper output.

At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 rupee to 3541 rupee per 100 kgs.