The Nifty ended the July series on a strong note and ended above the 4,550 level. The Sensex gained 215 points to end at 15,388 after swinging between 15,409 and 15,065. The Nifty shut at 4,571 up 58 points. The market breadth was positive and the volumes were lower compared to previous session, total traded turnover was down by 16% at Rs 1,23,635 cr. as against Rs 1,47,352 cr. The Nifty Aug future ended with 7 points premium at 4,578. In the July series, the Nifty jumped up 8% led by auto, realty, technology, FMCG and metal stocks. Respective sectors' indices went up 15? 22%.

The July series ended on a strong note and for the series the index was up by 8%. Markets were quite volatile and choppy during the entire series but the undertone remained optimistic as major action was seen in the midcap stocks. The overall index pivotal remained under pressure but stock specific action was clearly visible. Sectors like FMCG, auto and technology stocks outperformed the major indices.

The outlook for Aug series looks positive unless Nifty breaks 4400 mark. Currently nifty is caught in the narrow range of 4400?4600 and is waiting for a major breakout on the upper side which we believe that in coming day’s we could get it. But the important point is that markets should sustain above the 4640/15600 levels for some time to see a major development on the higher side.

The positive trigger could be from the banking index, we believe that if Bank Nifty holds 7230?7170 levels then it could outperform in coming days and the next target could be 7600?7900 or even 8200.

The negative factor in the index pivotal is Reliance Ind which is giving a negative divergence as huge selling pressure is build at the 2000 levels. Going forward this counter could spoil the momentum, so one should be cautious while building new positions. Keep a close eye on Reliance Ind movements. In the near term if Reliance trades below 1870 decisively then it could even test 1735 which is the 200?day moving average. And on the higher side 1935?1975 will act as a strong resistance area.

Nifty has strong support at 4410 levels, unless we see a break below this point markets are safe and healthy and every fall is a buying opportunity. If nifty trades below 4410 decisively then we could see panic selling happening and markets could test 4260 levels. On the higher side if 4640 is breached and sustained then next level is 4800.