Forex Update

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The EUR/USD experienced wild swings yesterday despite an incredible rally in U. S. equities. Considering both have been positively correlated during significant movements, the EUR/USD's lackluster performance was a bit disconcerting.


However, the EUR/USD found support on our uptrend line once again, and is rallying strongly on Wednesday. Interestingly, the Euro is appreciating today despite extremely negative reports from the EU's economic powerhouse, Germany.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

Gold dropped on Tuesday, exercising its negative correlation with U. S. equities to the full extent by dipping below the highly psychological $900/oz level.

However, the precious metal is finding support on our 1st tier trend line on Wednesday and has fought back to $900/oz. The question becomes whether U. S. equities can follow through on yesterday's impressive rally, or if Tuesday's surge was merely a head-fake.

If the S&P does continue upwards and Gold sinks below our 1st tier uptrend line, then we could witness a near-term crash in the precious metal. The next few trading sessions will certainly be telling as far as trend is concerned.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

Crude futures declined yesterday despite a huge rally in equities. The fact Crude didn't follow the S&P to the upside is confusing, and a bit discouraging for the bulls. Meanwhile, Crude has dipped below our downtrend line, indicating we could witness a continued selloff until our 2nd tier uptrend line.

The U. S. will release Crude Oil Inventories today. Analysts are expecting an increase of 0.1M barrels. If the number should come in higher than expected coupled with profit-taking in U. S. equities, this would provide the fuel for a sharp movement to the downside.

Though we are negative in the short-term concerning Crude futures, there are still multiple uptrend lines within which the futures can find support.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures tumbled yesterday in reaction to the huge surge in U. S. equities. Even though the 30 Year futures sold off, they are holding comfortably above March lows on Wednesday morning.

Therefore, the futures are trying to hold onto the uptrend while avoiding our 2nd tier downtrend line. The lack of commitment to the downside in the 30 Year futures shows traders aren't entirely convinced by the rally in the S&P futures on Tuesday.

However, despite the present stabilization in the 30 Year futures, the momentum remains to the downside due to the large supply of long-term bonds to fund the government's stimulus package. If equities can follow through on their rally, we may very well see a breach of the significant March lows.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The S&P futures posted an incredible rally on Tuesday fueled by Citigroup claiming itself profitable thus far in 2009. The financials surged with Citigroup and Bank of America climbing an astronomical 38% and 28%, respectively.

The movement was backed by solid volume, allowing yesterday's rally to become a possible 1st step in a permanent bottom. The S&P is trying to follow through on Wednesday, trading up over 1% pre-market. However, before we get too excited, we must realize there are multiple layers of downtrend lying in the road ahead.

EURO USD Forex Trading Tips and Analysis for Day Traders

Rate follows GBP in two-way action, holding support now above the 1.2600 area once again. Aggressive traders can add to open longs on this dip but BE CAREFUL as volatility is just huge.

Test of today’s lows likely at this point but traders note big names on the buy side on dips under the 1.2600 and 1.2620 area. Cross-spreaders supporting rate as GBP drops. Upside stops likely building in the overhead resistance at 1.2720/30 area now with stops likely the other side.

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