Forex Update

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The EUR/USD is selling off sharply on Monday, following the Pound and U. S. equities lower on the news Britain is nationalizing Lloyd's bank. Furthermore, HSBC experienced a rapid selloff, signaling the financials are in for another wave of turmoil on a global front.

This realization alone is foreboding that the major EU banks will experience similar troubles. With the ECB holding its benchmark at relatively high levels compared to the Fed and BOE, investors are speculating the ECB will need to lower rates closer to zero as well.

Encouragingly, the EUR/USD is catching itself above February and March lows, rescuing the currency from a traumatic selloff for the time being.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The Cable is crashing Monday on the news Britain is nationalizing Lloyd’s Bank.  Additionally, it seems HSBC has considerable exposure in U.S. loans, hinting it will need further assistance from the British government.

 Hence, the Britain government is committing itself fully to unknown levels of toxic debt, meaning the BOE may have to print many more Pounds to account for the losses.  This news has sent the GBP/USD tumbling below our 1st tier uptrend line and well below the psychological 1.40 level.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The S&P futures are set to open lower again on Monday with the S&P futures trading in the red pre-market. Friday's late session rally was encouraging in the fact that investors are starting to bite on oversold conditions, signs of a new bottom coming.

However, a high level of uncertainty is still swirling around the financial world and the problems that plagued equities last week remain unanswered. While the U. S. won't report any significant economic data until Thursday, the week is filled with keynote speeches from members of the Fed and Treasury.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

Crude futures continued their impressive rise on Friday as investors are pricing in another supply cut from OPEC at their March 15th meeting. Setting new March highs, crude futures are now approaching February highs.

While February highs and the psychological $50/bbl pose a hefty near-term struggle, if the futures can manage to break through these obstacles we should see some serious gains. However, there still is a considerable downtrend at hand. Therefore, despite increasing supply cuts from OPEC, the demand side of the equation may be too much to overcome.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The recent rally in Gold has halted and the precious metal is declining Monday despite the S&P futures trading down pre-market.  Despite the hesitation, Gold still has our 2nd tier uptrend for near-term to fall back on for the time being.  The next week of trading in Gold should prove to be important trend wise.

Gold is trying to recover from its mid-February to early-March selloff and continue its mid-term uptrend.  However, considering February highs were below 2008 highs, Gold has the potential to dip back into a downtrend. 

T-Bond Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures sold off on Friday as U.S. equities posted a late day rally.  However, it appears Friday’s downturn was merely profit taking. 

The 30 Year futures found support on our 127.8125 level and are edging up Monday with the S&P futures looking to close lower.  While the 30 Year futures are wedged between our uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines, they could be choosing the upside with no bottom in sight yet for U.S. equities.

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