USD Technical Forex Analysis for Daily Traders
The USD remains under pressure to end Monday as several technical levels fail putting the majors on the offensive into tomorrows' FOMC meeting. Analysts remain optimistic for a 50 BP cut in rates adding a bit of weight to current USD sentiment. At this point the USD remains the worlds' number 2 low-yielding currency with only the Yen providing less. With year-end repatriation into higher-yielding currencies as traders square-books with only a few solid trading days to go into year-end the USD appears likely to suffer more losses this week.
Despite weaker equities today USD/JPY was able to hold the important 90.00 handle with lows at 90.14 during early New York trade; traders note the pair may be subject to a short-squeeze soon suggesting the USD may have a technical rally but as more news comes from the US this week a rally may be seen as a selling opportunity. Traders note that bids appeared under the 90.50 area and the rate closes firm above there. EURO and GBP rallied on stops and active buying; EURO high print at 1.3704 and GBP at 1.5380; lows overnight went unchallenged during New York trade. EURO saw model and momentum accounts scrambling to cover shorts and possibly enter longs anticipating further gains but traders note technical resistance and offers waiting around the 1.3750/60 area.
GBP retreated a full handle under the highs to end New York around the 1.5250 area as sellers appeared at the highs. Traders note that a record high in the EURO/GBP rate suggests that the sell side of the GBP may be harder to overcome and more selling will appear on further strength. USD/CHF fell into the 1.1500 handle for a low print at 1.1563 before regaining the 1.1600 handle but with firmer Gold prices the rate is likely to suffer more losses; technical support in the rate is seen near the 1.1520/30 area overnight. USD/CAD low prints at 1.2229 were enough to encourage a small technical bounce but the rate was unable to hold the 1.2400 handle after a short-covering rally.
The rate closes near the 1.2380 area in thin conditions. Across the board traders note that conditions were thin and some saw solid one-way trade but the USD has suffered technical damage today that will likely result in selling pressure on a rally. In my view, the USD continues to show signs of topping and with the rally above key resistance in EURO the picture continues to show more USD weakness coming. Look for any retracement of the USD to result in buying of major pairs.
Today's US Dollar Trading
- USD fails to gain a foothold, ends lower across the board
- Model accounts buying EURO, possibly going long
- Volumes continue on the lighter side
Overnight Preview
- Look for the USD to consolidate overnight
- Should get quiet ahead of US data tomorrow
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
- 8:30am USD Building Permits
- 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
- 8:30am USD CPI m/m
- 8:30am USD Housing Starts
- 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
- 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate
Forex Analysis by Jason Alan Jankovsky at ForexPros.com. For more details about Forex Trading and Tips for decent earnings through Forex Trading, Please check http://www.forexpros.com