Axis Securities has reiterated its BUY recommendation on Juniper Hotels Ltd, assigning a revised target price of Rs 295, reflecting improved earnings visibility and margin resilience. The brokerage highlights a robust Q3FY26 performance marked by healthy average room rate (ARR) growth, expanding occupancy, and record-high EBITDA margins. Consolidated revenue rose 17% year-on-year to Rs 295 crore, while PAT more than doubled to Rs 65 crore. With expansion underway across Bengaluru, Kaziranga, and Guwahati, and industry demand buoyed by weddings, MICE recovery, and inbound tourism, Juniper appears well-positioned for sustained earnings momentum over the next two fiscal years.

Axis Securities Reaffirms BUY with Revised Target of Rs 295

Axis Securities has maintained its constructive stance on Juniper Hotels Ltd, reiterating a BUY call and revising the target price upward to Rs 295 per share from Rs 270 earlier. The valuation is now anchored at 14x H1FY28E EV/EBITDA, compared to 15x FY27E earlier, reflecting a calibrated but confident outlook.

At the current market price of Rs 260, the stock offers an implied upside of approximately 13%, underpinned by operational strength and medium-term expansion catalysts.

Operational Metrics Signal Pricing Power and Occupancy Gains

Juniper’s third-quarter performance underscores a compelling pricing environment across its premium portfolio.

Consolidated ARR rose 17% YoY to Rs 12,818, driven by strong traction at flagship properties. The Grand Hyatt Mumbai delivered a 7% ARR increase, outperforming its competitive set, while Andaz Delhi recorded 10% growth, ahead of the city average. Hyatt Regency Ahmedabad posted an even stronger 17% ARR expansion.

Portfolio occupancy improved by 3 percentage points to 78%, translating into a RevPAR of Rs 9,972, up 14% YoY. This combination of pricing discipline and occupancy growth reflects both demand resilience and brand strength in metro markets.

Operational metrics for Q3FY26 are summarized below:

Record Margins Propel Earnings Beat

Juniper reported consolidated revenue of Rs 295 crore, up 17% YoY and 28% sequentially, broadly in line with estimates.

However, profitability metrics surpassed expectations.

EBITDA surged 37% YoY to Rs 128 crore, while margins expanded to a record 43.2%, marking a 640 basis-point improvement year-on-year. The expansion was driven by operating leverage, stable cost ratios, and improved cost absorption.

PAT rose sharply to Rs 65 crore versus Rs 33 crore in the corresponding period last year, representing a 101% YoY increase. EPS for the quarter stood at Rs 4.6.

Key quarterly financials are as follows:

The quarter’s performance marks Juniper’s highest-ever consolidated EBITDA margin, reinforcing structural improvement rather than cyclical outperformance.

Expansion Pipeline Strengthens Growth Visibility

Juniper’s growth roadmap remains ambitious and geographically diversified.

The company plans to expand from 2,130 keys to 3,354 keys, including 737 keys via ROFO integrations. In Bengaluru, Phase 1 (235 keys) is slated for completion by the end of FY26, with full operationalization expected in FY27. Phase 2 will add another 273 keys, taking total inventory in the city to 508 keys.

Additionally:

A 111-key luxury resort in Kaziranga has commenced construction.

The 340-key Guwahati project has completed design, with construction expected from Q2 FY27.

These projects expand Juniper’s footprint into high-growth leisure and Northeast markets, positioning the company to capture incremental tourism flows.

Industry Tailwinds Support Medium-Term Momentum

Management commentary remains optimistic about demand trends in H2FY26 and beyond. Key drivers include:

Wedding season strength, MICE recovery, and rising inbound tourism. The recovery in Free Trade Agreements-linked travel and blended “bleisure” demand from corporate travelers are expected to sustain occupancy and room rate momentum.

Importantly, the branded hotel segment continues to benefit from limited incremental supply, reinforcing pricing power in metro cities.

Revised Earnings Outlook and Financial Trajectory

Post Q3FY26, Axis Securities has raised EBITDA estimates by 5.7% for FY26 and 5.9% for FY27, while PAT forecasts have been upgraded by 11.8% and 10.5%, respectively.

Projected financials reflect a compelling trajectory:

Return ratios are also set to improve, with RoE projected to rise from 5.9% in FY26E to 7.6% in FY27E, while leverage trends remain comfortable.

Key Risks to Monitor

Axis flags several risks that could temper the growth thesis:

• Economic slowdown impacting travel demand
• Increase in industry supply affecting realizations
• Negative operating leverage compressing margins
• Delays in project commissioning

Execution discipline across upcoming properties will be critical in preserving margin expansion.

Investment View: Structural Margin Story with Expansion Optionality

Juniper Hotels is emerging as a structurally stronger hospitality operator with demonstrable pricing power and margin scalability. With record EBITDA margins, a visible expansion pipeline, and sectoral tailwinds from leisure and corporate travel recovery, the earnings base appears well-supported.

Axis Securities’ BUY recommendation and revised target of Rs 295 reflect confidence in medium-term cash flow generation and operating leverage.

For investors seeking exposure to India’s premium hospitality upcycle, Juniper Hotels presents a calibrated opportunity—balancing steady asset ramp-up with improving return metrics.