T-Bond Daily Commentary for 3.4.09
The 30 Year T-Bond futures are weakening Wednesday, but found temporary support on our 124.98 level. If the futures are to fall below February lows, we anticipate a heightened near-term selloff. Since equities and treasuries are normally negatively correlated, the lack of movement to the upside in the 30 Year with equities at critical lows shows the downtrend is intact.
Furthermore, the fact the 30 Year futures are declining with equities shows investors are concerned the demand for government debt is insufficient to satisfy supply. As a result, yields are rising and price falling, placing exorbitant downward pressure on the 30 Year T-Bond futures.
With the uptrend walking away into the distance and the 2nd tier downtrend line re-approaching, we maintain our negative stance on the 30 Year futures.
Fundamentally, we hold our resistance of 125.75 with 2nd tier and bottom-end hanging at 126.64 and 127.25, respectively. To the downside, we maintain supports of 124.98 and 124.36. The 30 Year Treasury Bond futures are currently trading at 125 05.0.
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