The USD/JPY is heading south as our 1st tier uptrend line and 2nd tier downtrend lines reach an inflection point despite a better than expected Trade Balance from Japan earlier today. Japan's Trade Balance showed slight improvements in exports, although nothing to pour champagne over.

We feel the Trade Balance data could be a lagging indicator as it may not reflect the present export environment. What we do see is a currency pair succumbing to its negative tendencies, following U. S. equities lower.

The Cable has been incredibly volatile today as investors digest important employment data and the CBI’s release of Britain’s budget for the new fiscal year.  The GBP/USD shot up earlier after the Claimant Count Change number came in much better than anticipated. 

However, the currency pair has reversed course after Darling outlined the new budget and reduced his forecast for GDP growth.  Today’s data also comes with a negative asterisk attached since the average earnings data was much worse than expected, signaling consumption could take another big hit.

The EUR/USD continues its consolidation between our 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines, a sign that we could see a little near-term pop as investors bite on what may be oversold conditions. The EUR/USD is experiencing stability due to a better than expected Claimant Count Change number in Britain.

However, any near-term gains could be mitigated due to the highly psychological 1.30 lying just above present levels. Hence, the EUR/USD should experience more relative consolidation over the next 24 hours as investors await the flood of manufacturing and services data tomorrow.

The rally in gold cooled yesterday as the precious metal failed to test the highly psychological $900/oz mark. Gold is calmly walking along today despite a downturn in the S&P futures after a negative earnings release from Morgan Stanley.

The recent performance of gold has been erratic at best, and it's difficult to gauge what the precious metal has on its mind. While seemingly committing to the downtrend at the beginning of April, gold has since re-approached $900/oz twice.

Crude recovered some of its losses yesterday as U. S. equities posted solid gains on the session. However, the stabilization is proving temporary as the futures head south again today.

We've noticed a considerable spike in volume recently, likely due to bulls taking advantage of what they view as oversold conditions. Despite buyers coming to the forefront, the futures have made a clear commitment to the downtrend by setting new Aprils and bidding farewell to the important $50/bbl level.

The downtrend is really taking hold today as the 30 Year T-Bond futures look to fall beneath 4/20 lows. Volume is picking up and we notice a tight positive correlation with U. S. equities. The pressure remains to the downside as the 30 Year futures trade well below our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines.

The futures are headed towards fundamentally significant territory, particularly March lows. Though the lows seem far away right now, they could be reached faster than one may anticipate. The negative performance of the 30 year creates an interesting scenario.