Forex Update

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.17.09

Not much has changed in the USD/JPY with the consolidation process dragging on. The sideways movement of the USD/JPY over the last three weeks signifies the relevance of the psychological 100 level.

Investors are still reluctant to test it, indicating they haven't bought into a bottom in U. S. equities yet. While the Japanese economy is incredibly weak, America's certainly isn't putting on a stellar performance.

Therefore, if the U. S. economy continues to shell out more negative economic data the USD/JPY should continue its consolidation or possibly make a large movement south.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.17.09

Crude futures leapt from our 2nd tier downtrend line yesterday, logging impressive gains considering U. S. equities ended Monday's session with a brisk selloff. The futures are presently struggling with our 2nd tier uptrend line, but seem tempted to jump out to fresh gains on Tuesday.

It also seems a retest of the much anticipated $50/bbl level is imminent. If the crude futures can creep out of March highs and $50/bbl successively, we anticipate large near-term gains.

However, disregarding the optimism of present, we believe crude futures could be getting ahead of themselves. The previous supply cuts from OPEC are being priced in, implying we'd need a pickup in demand to send crude to new heights.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.17.09

Gold continues its relative consolidation while sitting right above our 2nd tier uptrend line right now. The fact the precious metal hasn't made a large step downward in the last 24 hours is a positive development as far as the uptrend is concerned. Gold bugs are waiting to see how the significant U. S. economic data pans out today.

The direction of Gold seems to be a coin flip, and will depend on the direction of U. S. equities. We expect the negative correlation between the two to hold true during fundamentally meaningful moments such as these.

TBond Daily Commentary for 3.17.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures continue to weaken after reaching our inflection point yesterday. The downward movement came despite a late session selloff in U. S. equities. The 30 Year futures are showing us time and again their normal negative correlation with the S&P futures is out of sync due to outside market forces.

The combination of the large increase in supply of government debt coupled with China losing its appetite for U. S. Treasuries is raising yields and lowering price. Due to the mass confusion and uncertainty swirling around U. S. Treasuries, the 30 Year futures remained locked within the trading range beginning in early February.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.17.09

The S&P futures logged a sharp late session selloff on Monday to end the day on a negative note. The downturn came in reaction to news that American Express is experiencing a rising delinquency rate on its consumer credit cards. This news reflects the worry that the debt of U. S. consumers is rising in the face of higher unemployment coupled with skyrocketing foreclosure rates. Furthermore, all of the U. S. data released yesterday came in below expectations.

EURO USD Forex Trading Tips and Analysis for Day Traders

Pages