Forex Update

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are leveling off following Wednesday's fundamental gains in reaction to the Fed's decision to implement quantitative easing. The profit-taking is reflected across the 5 and 10 Year Notes as well.

However, such a large move should have its ramifications, and we would not be surprised to see the U. S. Treasuries continue on their upward path for the near-term. However, the question becomes whether the 30 Year futures can climb past the drudges of the January trading range to get back to making comfortable gains.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

Even though all of the equity correlations are indicating a furious rally in the S&P futures, investors are debating whether to send the index past the highly psychological 800 level.

Investors are still digesting Wednesday's huge move from the Federal Reserve, and are uncertain whether it spells recovery or pending disaster for the U. S. economy. Financials are trading down for the most part while technologies rally.

The largest concern for investors is that the quantitative easing will result in hyperinflation, or higher prices coupled with a withering economy. The Dollar has weakened significantly across the board while commodities such as gold, grains, and crude are rising.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.19.09

The USD/JPY is sinking lower, making its long anticipated move outside of the March trading range. The Dollar is depreciating across the board after the Fed announced a shocking $300 Billion quantitative easing plan.

However, the Yen is experiencing the least strength as compared to other major Dollar crosses since the Japanese economy is the weakest in the world right now and the BOJ has been initiating quantitative easing of its own.

Nevertheless, investors are favoring the Yen over the Dollar due to the sheer mass of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing balance sheet. Now that the USD/JPY has finally made a directional decision, it's safe to say the downtrend is back in full-force and the possible retest of 100 becomes a distant memory.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.19.09

The Pound followed the pack of currencies appreciating against the Dollar in an accelerated fashion after the Federal Reserve opted to use quantitative easing to stabilize the U. S. economy.

Although the Cable has made a large movement to the upside over the last 24 hours, its rise has not been as extreme as the EUR/USD since Britain is participating in quantitative easing of its own. Furthermore, we can't forget the Britain released a staggering CCC number earlier this week.

Hence, the Cable faces many more obstacles to the upside than the EUR/USD including February highs and the highly psychological 1.50 level.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.19.09

The EUR/USD rocketed higher with the Dollar weakening significantly against all major pairs in reaction to the Federal Reserve deciding to inject $300 Billion into quantitative easing.

The quantitative easing plan requires massive money printing, increasing the U. S. money supply considerably. The Fed intended to make U. S. exports attractive, and the Fed clearly accomplished its intention.

The EUR/USD has catapulted into a clear uptrend after the currency pair was still contemplating whether to duck back into its downtrend. Since the ECB has kept its benchmark rate at a reasonable level while avoiding quantitative easing of its own, the Euro is thriving after the Fed's decision.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.19.09

The S&P jumped yesterday but backed away from the highly psychological 800 level after the Fed announced a surprise injection of $300 Billion into a quantitative easing program.

The actual announcement of quantitative easing was not entirely unexpected since Bernanke has left the window open as an avenue of last resort since December. It was the amount of money being injected which caught investors off-guard.

The FX markets certainly took notice as the Dollar plunged against both the Euro and the Pound by extraordinary amounts. Additionally, we saw Gold fly, and naturally the U. S. Treasury futures experienced a huge pop. Sifting past all the headline data, we must ask ourselves what the Fed intended to achieve with such a decision.

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