ICICI Securities Limited has reiterated its BUY call on electric supply major Tata Power, maintaining a target price of Rs 465 for the stock. The research house highlights the company’s robust diversification across the power value chain, its expanding solar manufacturing footprint, and the turnaround in its distribution business, especially in Odisha. However, the lingering uncertainty around the Mundra thermal plant remains a key monitorable. The report underscores Tata Power’s strategic growth levers, including renewable energy expansion, rooftop solar penetration, and transmission projects, while cautioning on execution risks and regulatory developments. Investors are advised to monitor the resolution of the Mundra issue and the pace of renewable capacity addition for future upside.

ICICI Securities Maintains BUY Call

ICICI Securities Limited has reaffirmed its BUY recommendation for Tata Power , with an unchanged target price of Rs 465. The research house cites the company’s diversified presence across generation, transmission, and distribution, as well as its growing renewables portfolio. The analyst team believes Tata Power’s backward integration into solar manufacturing and its successful turnaround of Odisha discoms provide a strong foundation for future growth. However, the unresolved status of the Mundra thermal plant continues to be a key risk factor.

Strategic Diversification Across Power Value Chain

Tata Power’s footprint now spans generation, transmission, and distribution, with a notable shift toward renewables. The company has ramped up its solar cell and module manufacturing capacity to 4.3GW and is planning to add 10GW of solar wafer and ingot manufacturing. This backward integration is expected to yield synergies across solar EPC, rooftop, and generation businesses. Tata Power’s distribution business includes marquee license areas such as Delhi and Mumbai, with recent additions in Odisha.

Renewables and Rooftop Solar Growth

The company’s renewables business is poised for substantial growth, with plans to add 3.3GW of capacity over the next 18 months. Tata Power has commissioned 0.2GW of renewable capacity in the first half of FY26 and expects to commission 1.3GW in the second half and 2GW in FY27. The rooftop solar segment is also gaining traction, with 370MWp installations completed in Q2FY26. The company anticipates widespread rooftop penetration in India, driven by government initiatives.

Transmission and Hydro Projects Pipeline

Tata Power has a robust pipeline of transmission projects worth Rs 120bn and pumped storage projects of 2.8GW. The company is also developing hydro projects in Bhutan, with a 1,125MW Dorjilung project approved and a 600MW Khorlochhu project already under construction. These projects are expected to contribute to long-term growth and diversification.

Mundra Thermal Plant: Lingering Uncertainty

The Mundra thermal plant, with a capacity of 4.2GW, remains inoperative since June 2025 due to unresolved PPA issues. The plant was previously operating under Section 11 arrangements, which were discontinued after June 2025. Tata Power is in advanced discussions with PPA counterparties, particularly in Gujarat, and expects a resolution by the end of November 2025. The resolution of the Mundra issue is a key monitorable for the company’s future performance.

Financial Performance and Valuation

Tata Power reported revenue of Rs 158bn, EBITDA of Rs 35.3bn, and profit of Rs 9.2bn for the period. The company’s EBITDA growth was driven by incremental contributions from solar module and cell manufacturing, Odisha discoms, and solar EPC/renewable generation. The financial summary for FY24A to FY27E is as follows:

Key Risks and Monitorables

Investors should monitor the resolution of the Mundra PPA issue, the pace of renewable capacity addition, and the execution of pumped storage and hydro projects. Delays in these areas could impact the company’s growth trajectory and financial performance.

Investment Recommendation and Levels

ICICI Securities maintains a BUY call on Tata Power with a target price of Rs 465. The current market price is Rs 396, offering a potential upside of approximately 17%. Investors are advised to monitor the resolution of the Mundra issue and the company’s progress on renewable energy projects for future upside. Key support and resistance levels for the stock are as follows:
Support: Rs 370

Resistance: Rs 420

Target: Rs 465