Republican nominee McCain could surprise in November

Republican nominee McCain could surprise in NovemberWashington - Barack Obama's celebrity candidacy has stolen the international spotlight, but Republican Party standardbearer John McCain's chances of capturing the White House in November may be better than foreign observers perceive.

His populist "straight talk" style, relatively moderate views on domestic issues and hawkish foreign policy - girded by a maverick reputation within his own party - resonate well with centrist and

independent voters, making McCain a formidable candidate despite the deep unpopularity of President George W Bush, a fellow Republican.

Recent national surveys leading up to this week's Democratic Party Convention in Denver, Colorado, put McCain close behind or even in a statistical dead heat with Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois.

In the state-by-state electoral college tally, the November 4 general elections are too close to call.

The polls show that that US voters might not be as ready for change as expected - despite a stumbling economy and regrets about the Iraq war - or at least the kinds of change that Obama promises.

McCain could dash hopes abroad that Bush's successor will be the glamourous, left-leaning Obama, 47, who is already the first-ever African-American to be a major-party presidential nominee.

McCain has been the inevitable Republican nominee since February. Obama took the lead among Democrats at the same time but was unable to force rival Senator Hillary Clinton to quit the race until June. Celebrating his 72nd birthday on Friday, with 25 years in Congress, McCain would enter the White House in January as the oldest president ever to begin his first term.

Ronald Reagan, by far the oldest of the 43 men who have held the presidency since 1789, took office just short of his 70th birthday in January 1981 and served eight years. McCain was first elected to Congress during Reagan's first term and often describes himself as a "foot soldier in the Reagan revolution."

McCain lacks the charisma and speaking talent of Reagan, who was a former Hollywood actor.

But McCain has a different asset in an era of terrorism and war: a retired US Navy fighter pilot, he was shot down in 1967 over North Vietnam, broke three limbs parachuting into Hanoi and spent five and a half years as a prisoner of war.

As the son of an admiral - his father was a top US commander in the Vietnam War - McCain was tortured sometimes for days at a time and suffered regular beatings throughout much of his captivity. He refused North Vietnamese offers of early release, insisting on waiting until comrades who had been held longer were freed.

His wounds and mistreatment left McCain with permanent disabilities. He cannot raise his arms above his shoulders and in response to cheering crowds at campaign rallies waves by holding his arms in front of his body instead of over his head.

Even Democrats have no choice but to readily acknowledge McCain's military service. Former president Bill Clinton, the last Democrat in the White House, gave Obama a rousing endorsement at the centre-left party's convention while calling McCain "a good man who has served our country heroically and who suffered terribly in a Vietnamese prison camp."

By tying up the Republican nomination early, McCain has been able to focus for months on the general election. He desperately need that head start, because Obama will be able to vastly outspend McCain in the general election.

With a highly motivated base of Democratic financial supporters, Obama is approaching 400 million dollars raised, while McCain has received less that half that and already spent much of his campaign war chest.

McCain has accused Democrats of plotting "surrender" in Iraq by pulling out troops and cast Obama as inexperienced, while vowing "to fight every moment of every day in this campaign to make sure Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call."

Only last summer, McCain's presidential run appeared doomed as he struggled to raise money and was forced to cut staff and shutter campaign offices.

He had called for a troop buildup long before Bush's own January 2007 "surge" order. That hardline stance on the war contributed to McCain's early struggles, until the surge seemed to quell the violence in Iraq, reinvigorating both the US mission and McCain's own prospects.

One of McCain's toughest tasks will be energizing and uniting his own party ahead of November. Turnout in Democratic primaries was consistently higher than in Republican state contests.

While McCain has done well with independent voters, his moderate domestic views and maverick reputation have alienated him from rank- and-file Republicans, who may be less motivated to organize and donate in the autumn campaign or to vote in November.

Defeated by Bush for the 2000 Republican nomination, McCain has a reputation for a hot temper, and will need to keep his composure under the intense glare of the home stretch to the general election. (dpa)

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