Indian Stock Market Outlook and Technical View: Nirmal Bang Securities
The benchmark indices ended with marginal loss after an extreme volatile session. The Sensex ended 55 points lower at 15,411, after trading between 15,568 and 15,242. On the NSE, the Nifty closed 17 points lower at 4,637. Among the broader indices ? the CNX midcap index and BSE smallcap index ending 0.36 and 0.90 % lower respectively. Selling was seen in oil & gas, technology, realty, cement and power stocks, while metal and auto stocks witnessed buying. The market breadth was negative and the June nifty future also ended with a 7 points discount at 4,631.
In today’s session we have seen strong pressure build up at higher levels. Going forward we believe that markets will need fresh triggers to lift the market above the 4700 mark. We are also seeing that focus has been shifted from the small cap & midcap stocks to the frontline stocks due to which the market breadth is also getting negative. What we feel is that the trend is up and the undertone is also bullish but one should remain cautious at higher levels. This intermediate trend will break only if nifty trades below 4360.
Markets are trading at a very crucial point from where a 5% rally on either side is possible in a very short period of time. We believe that one should be very cautious in buying shares at higher levels. The undertone is bullish as buying is seen in the frontline sectors like metals, telecom, auto which helps in keeping the momentum positive.
For tomorrow, intra?day support for nifty exits at 4580, a trade below 4580 can bring little pressure into the system. Resistance is placed at 4650?4690 levels. Fresh buying trigger can be seen only if nifty breaks above the 4700 mark. Weakness can be seen only if nifty breaks 4550.
And major weakness will be seen if markets break 4370/14500 level, until then every dip should be used as a buying opportunity. We believe that at this stage players should stay with the frontline stocks rather then buying mid?cap.