EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

The EUR/USD is flying after the EU reported a Core CPI one basis point better than expectations. A stabilizing CPI indicates future growth in business revenue and consequently a stronger Euro.


Consequently, if additional EU data confirms this trend then the ECB may be able to avoid lowering its benchmark rate further. However, we must not forget the ugly economic data released from Germany last week, which raises a cautionary flag to the wind.

ECB President Trichet addresses the public today, and all ears will be keen to decipher his language concerning upcoming monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is putting on an impressive show, pushing through our 2nd and 3rd uptrend lines in a single swoop.

The currency pair is currently sitting above the psychological 1.30 level and could experience some near-term profit taking as investors hesitate to send the EUR/USD above and beyond.

Furthermore, the currency pair is facing February highs, a constrictive barrier for the time being. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD continues to build considerable momentum and has significantly increased the possibility of a large near-term breakout.

Fundamentally, we find support of 1.3022 with additional supports resting at 1.2991, 1.2971, and 1.2934. To the topside, see resistance at 1.3058 with additional resistances hanging at 1.3086, 1.3113, and 1.3146. The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3035.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

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