Energy Market Outlook and Sector Updates: Nirmal Bang
Crude futures rose marginally on Monday on the expectation of no supply cut by OPEC countries in the meeting ahead.
Natural Gas continues to remain laggard and dropped by Rs. 1.3 in the last trading session on MCX.
Oil prices fell toward $61 a barrel on Monday ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna, where the group was widely expected to agree to hold output steady.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet on Thursday to review its oil supply policy and is expected to keep output targets steady while calling for improved compliance by its members.
Crude oil: OPEC meeting has resulted in sideways movement in crude oil, our bias is still on upside but we recommend buying at blip of Rs. 40-50/barrel during the day. Natural gas is expected to trade sideways to down for the day due to rising inventories and unchanged output.
Crude price are hovering in the range of 2925-2880 for the past three sessions, forming a Symmetric Triangle. Therefore, Crude can move in the direction of the break-out. Thus, one should remain cautious in crude at this levels. Looking at the MACD, the clues are on the downside with negative difference. Thus, one can sell Crude on breaching 2880 levels in downside, targeting 2850 and 2810 on the downside.
Natural Gas prices have retraced almost 100% from the top of 226 and very close to the bottom of 165-170 levels. Natural gas is expected to hold at the bottom, and gradually move up. Thus, the levels can be seen as a buying opportunity with a Sl of 165 for next upward rally.